Ide tartozik:

 

 

U.S. Gas Production Seen Sliding for 4 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=anyXBvUCQa_M&refer=energy

 

 

U.S. production of natural gas, the most widely used furnace fuel in the world’s largest economy, may tumble through 2012 as low prices prompt producers to shut down drilling rigs from Louisiana to the Rocky Mountains.

 

(...)

 

Energy companies probably will slash onshore U.S. gas drilling to 800 or 900 rigs this year from a peak of 1,606 in 2008 after prices for the fuel plunged 70 percent from their 2008 high, said Keith Hutton, chief executive officer at Fort Worth, Texas-based producer XTO Energy Inc. As a result, gas output probably will decline by 3 percent to 5 percent in 2009, Hutton told investors on a conference call yesterday.

 

Idling rigs slows new discoveries and prevents companies from offsetting output declines that average 30 percent a year from established wells, Hutton said.

 

“If your underlying decline rate is 30 percent and you drop your rig count in half, it’s hard as hell to catch back up,” said Hutton, 50. “If you start picking rig count up 10 or 15 percent a year and it takes you three or four years to get back to the old rig count, you’re going to decline almost the entire time. We’re set for falling gas production for quite awhile here.”

 

 

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Tiszta beszéd. Évi 30%-os a decline a gázmezők kútjainál, így hát ha a rigek számát a felére csökkentik, akkor nagyon sokáig csökkenő termelés lesz. (Egyébként is elkezdett volna csökkenni elég hamar, mert a shale gas még nagyobb ütemben ürül, és az új gázmezők nagyobbik része ilyen.)

 

Valami azt súgja, hogy az USA túl van a BRUTTO energiafelasználásának a csúcsán is immár.

 

peak US oil: 1970-71

peak US gas: 2003-2008

peak US Coal (BTU): 2001-2002

 

Az alternatívok meg nem nőnek eléggé, új atomerőmű 25-30 éve nem épült ott.