A New York-i nyersolaj alulról kostolgatja a 45$-os hordónkénti árat.  Egyes elemzői vélemények szerint ha megvolt a 45$, akkor utána már meg sem áll 50$-ig.

Jovő héten aug 14-én összeül az OPEC, hogy újabb 1..1,5 millió hordóval emeljen, aug.15-én pedig a Hugo Chavez elnök visszahívásáról tartanak népszavazást Venezuelában.

 

 

 

 

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040809&ID=3898703

 

Oil Hits Record as Iraq Cuts Output
August 09, 2004 1:02:00 PM ET

By Andrew MItchell

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices hit fresh record highs on Monday after a Shi'ite Muslim uprising forced Iraq to shut down its southern oil production, reinforcing concern over tight international supplies.

U.S. light crude rose just over a dollar to $44.97 a barrel, the highest price since the New York Mercantile Exchange launched oil futures in 1983. London Brent crude also jumped a dollar to $41.65 a barrel.

Prices reacted to OPEC producer Iraq halting operations in the southern oil production center of Basra because of threats from the Mehdi Army militia of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

``Pumping from the southern oilfields to storage tanks at Basra was stopped today after threats made by Al-Sadr,'' the official told Reuters. ``It will remain stopped until the threat is over,'' he said.

Attacks against the southern pipelines, which deliver all of the country's 1.9 million barrels per day of exports, have stopped loadings several times this year.

The official said militiamen from al-Sadr's Mehdi Army had threatened to sabotage production by the state Southern Oil Company, based in Basra. He said storage at the Gulf Basra terminal was sufficient to keep exports running for about two days.

Oil has rallied more than 30 percent this year as rapid demand growth, especially in the United States and China, has left little leeway for any supply disruptions. Consumption is accelerating at its fastest pace in more than 20 years.

Prices rose even though an official at Russia's state railways said it expected no disruptions in YUKOS' oil and refined oil products exports by rail after August 10, when the firm's deadline to pay transport fees expires.

YUKOS continues to battle bankruptcy due to a multi-billion-dollar tax debt case, which threatens to bring its day-to-day operations to a halt, including oil exports. YUKOS, Russia's biggest oil-exporting firm, pumps 1.7 million bpd of crude, or two percent of global supply.

``No supplies will be stopped after August 10. We will continue to work as we have been working in the past because it is in the state's interest,'' Marina Kovshova, head of Russian state railways' marketing department, told Reuters.

VENEZUELA REFERENDUM LOOMS

There are also worries that supplies from Venezuela, the world's number five exporter, may be disrupted during a referendum on August 15 on the rule of President Hugo Chavez.

A two-month strike by opponents of leftist Chavez late in 2002 temporarily halted the OPEC producer's overseas sales and caused oil prices to spike.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls around half of the world's crude exports, is pumping at the highest levels since 1979 as it tries to stem oil's relentless price rise.

OPEC output is running at 30 million barrels daily and president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said last week that the group was ready to lift production by 1 to 1.5 million bpd if deemed necessary when ministers next meet.

The group is scheduled to meet in Vienna on September 15 to review output policy, but only Saudi Arabia has any significant spare capacity to increase supply.

The International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrialized nations on energy policy, said it was stepping up consultation with member countries on the issue of a possible release of strategic oil stocks.

``We are intensifying our communication,'' said Kenji Kobayashi, director of the office of oil markets and emergency preparedness.

``IEA countries have the ability to respond through the co-ordinated release of strategic stocks. We are carefully assessing the situation,'' he said.