Hivatalosan idén Márciús 29-én kezdődött az Usák választási hadjárat, és Bush és kihivója Kerry igyekeztek egymást alulmúlni a demagóg igéretekben, miszerint több üzemanyag lesz, olcsóbban, még többen fognak autózni, még kevésbé fognak függeni a Közel-Keleti olajtól, így még kevesebb katona fog átkerülni az örök olajmezőkre.
A 30 másodperces reklámok korában csak egyszerű üzeneteket lehet eljuttatni a választókhoz: "az üzemanyagárak növekednek, a másik jelölt a hibás, én mindent megoldok."
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Ismétlésképpen egy kis statisztika: 2000-ben 16 "Elefántot" (óriásOlajmező) fedeztek fel, 2001-ben 8-at, 2002-ben pedig 3-at, 2003-ban 0-át. Manapság 6 hordó olajat fogyasztunk el, miközben csak 1-et találunk.
Idén 11 "Elefánt" mezőn kezdik meg a kitermelést, jövőre 18 új mezőt "kapcsolnak rá a hálózatra". 2007-ben már csak 3-at, 2008-ban is 3-at, 2009-re és 2010-re nincs tervbe véve egy sem.
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Az OlajKimerülés Analizáló Központ úgy véli, hogy az Usák adófizetők kb 15..20 dollárt fizetnek hordónként az olajvezetékek és az olajtankerek biztosítására.
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A Szaudok olajkitermelése 30..40%-ot eshet a közeljövőben - mondja Matt Simmons - értsd 3..5 éven belül, de ez akár holnap is bekövetkezhet. Jó lenne ezt előre tudni, mert B terv az nincs.
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Stephen Leeb gazdaságelemző aszondja, hogy mindaddig míg az energiaárak a gazdaságnak csupán 5%-át képviselik, addig nincs különösebb szerepe a árváltozásoknak. Mihelyst azonban az energiaárak túllépik a 10%-os küszöböt, akkor olyan problémák állnak elő, amelyek megoldása óhatatlanul életmód-változtatást kíván. Usákiában az energiaárak jelenleg a gazdaság 8%-át képviselik.
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Energia, Teljesítmény, Változás - ezek kéne az idei kampány jelmondatai legyenek, és ezekre kéne szavazni.

THE COMING ENERGY CRUNCH
A $2 gallon of gas is just the beginning

THE ELECTION-YEAR mudslinging over gas prices officially began on March 29, when Dick Cheney accused John Kerry of flip-flopping on his support for increased gas taxes. "After voting three times to increase the gas tax and once proposing to increase it by 50 cents a gallon," Cheney charged, "he now says he doesn't support it."

With gas prices rising to record levels, Kerry was only too happy the vice president brought up the topic. That evening, Kerry told the crowd at a San Francisco fundraiser that if the cost of a gallon kept creeping toward $3, "Dick Cheney and President Bush are going to have to carpool to work together. Those aren't Exxon prices, ladies and gentleman, those are Halliburton prices!" That zinger elicited a huge roar and zipped around the world as the sound bite du jour. It was such a hit, Kerry added it to his stump speech.

The Bush campaign struck back with a new television ad, entitled "Wacky." "Some people have wacky ideas," says a mildly sarcastic male voice. "Like taxing gasoline more so people drive less. That's John Kerry." A vaudevillian image of 12 guys in business suits riding a gigantic, clownish bicycle jitterbugs across the screen.

You can't squeeze a whole lot of policy detail into a 30-second ad or an evening-news sound bite. But after sifting through the rhetorical chaff on gas prices, the parameters of the current national debate on energy policy become clear.

For the Bush campaign, gas taxes are out of the question. There will be no discussion of, say, the wide-ranging benefits that Europeans have derived from their $5 per gallon, or the fact that we pay a gas tax to the Saudis rather than our own public coffers. Gas taxes are simply "wacky." You'd have to be even more "wacky" to talk about people driving less.

The message coming from the Democrats is equally demagogic. Though the Kerry campaign has issued policy papers focused on reducing American dependence on foreign oil (buried deep within the Kerry web site), in public he has tended to steer clear of discussing these ideas. Rather, he uses his airtime to criticize the president.

While crowds love Kerry's line about Bush and Cheney riding to work together, there is something disappointing about the Democratic nominee ridiculing the idea of carpooling. In addition to reducing traffic, car-sharing happens to be one of the fastest, cheapest, most high-impact ways that Americans can make real reductions in daily oil consumption. Car-sharing should be part of the Democratic platform, not a laugh line.

Kerry and the Democrats' other gasoline talking points are equally ill-advised. Telling the president to do a better job of "jaw-boning" the Saudis does not address the need to make America less beholden to foreign energy suppliers. Nor does the call to release oil from the Strategic Reserve.

The strategy for both campaigns so far has been pretty simple: Gas prices are rising rapidly. Blame it on the other guy. Present yourself as the guy who will make gas cheaper.

In the age of the 30-second campaign ad, we've come to expect this sort of approach to complex issues. It's the norm. But America is on the cusp of an energy crisis that is going to redefine the way we live—whether our leaders prepare us for it or not.

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In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of oil "mega-fields." In 2001, we found eight, and in 2002 only three such discoveries were made. Today, we consume about six barrels of oil for every one new barrel discovered.

This year, 11 new mega-projects came online; next year, 18 will start producing. But by 2008 only three big new fields are scheduled to start flowing, with no new projects on track for 2009 or 2010.

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The Oil Depletion Analysis Center estimates "the military costs of protecting pipelines and tanker routes, borne mainly by U.S. taxpayers, at around $15 to $20 per barrel."

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His [Mat Simmons] final assessment of the Saudis is chilling. "We could be on the verge of seeing a collapse of 30 or 40 percent of their production in the imminent future, and imminent means sometime in the next three to five years—but it could even be tomorrow. If we need a plan B, it would sure be nice to know that with a little bit of advance warning."

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Likewise, the U.S. economy has in the past been protected from the impact of energy price increases because energy costs have been so low and such a small percentage of total economic activity. According to Stephen Leeb, those days are coming to an end. "If the price of energy is only five percent of the total economy then increases aren't so important. When energy costs become 10 percent of the economy, that's significant. We're at about eight percent right now. That's very close to the tipping point."

When the tipping point comes, Americans will be compelled to live very differently than they do today. One leading American social critic, James Howard Kunstler, sees serious political and cultural turmoil up ahead as the way of life Americans have built over the last 60 years begins to break down. With decreasing access to cheap oil, Kunstler sees the fundamentals of industrial agriculture, manufacturing and retail trade changing significantly.

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Unlike President Bush, who after the crisis of Sept. 11 asked the American people to go shopping, Kerry should ask something meaningful of the American people. He should ask every American to change at least one thing in their homes, workplaces and communities to make the nation a bit more independent of foreign energy. Americans would respond. We love self-help and personal transformation. It's our national religion.

In fact, only in the last few days, the Kerry campaign has started to head in this very direction, including more substantial discussion of energy in his campaign speeches. "A strong America begins at home," he said, "with energy independence from the Middle East... Our dependence on foreign oil is a problem we must solve together the only way we can: by inventing our way out of it. Let's ensure that no young American soldier has to fight and die because of our dependence on foreign oil."

Energy. Power. Change. These are the campaign themes of a presidential candidate worth electing this year.