A Kínai gazdaság elég törékeny és merev, még nem álltak át teljesen a piacgazdaságra.
Szinte csak az ipart nyomják. 50%-os a kapacitástöbblet és tartós a defláció.

Is China's Growth Real and Sustainable?

Kínában gyakorlatilag nincs környezetvédelem. A globális felmelegedés, elsivatagosodás, savas eső őket is érinti.

CHINA'S SHRINKING GRAIN HARVEST

"After a remarkable expansion of grain output from 90 million tons in 1950 to 392 million tons in 1998, China's grain harvest has fallen in four of the last five years—dropping to 322 million tons in 2003. For perspective, this drop of 70 million tons exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada."

Évek óta csökken a termelés.

"Reversing the fall in grain production will not be easy even with China's newly adopted economic incentives. Each trend that is shrinking the grainland area has a great deal of momentum. Reversing any one of them would take an enormous effort. Reversing all of them is inconceivable. If the new economic incentives should coincide with unusually favorable weather this year, a modest upturn in grain production might result, but it will likely be only temporary."

A folyamatot lehetetlen megfordítani.

"Barring an economic collapse, China soon will be forced to turn to the world market for massive imports of 30, 40, or 50 million tons per year. This comes at a time when world grain stocks are at their lowest level in 30 years and when U.S. farmers are losing irrigation water to aquifer depletion and to cities. Among other things, this means that the surplus world grain production capacity and cheap food of the last half-century may soon be history. Higher food prices could become a permanent part of the economic landscape. Adjusting to these higher food prices could become a dominant preoccupation of governments in the years ahead.

When China turns to the world market, it will necessarily turn to the United States, which controls nearly half of world grain exports. This presents an unprecedented geopolitical situation in which 1.3 billion Chinese consumers who have a $120-billion trade surplus with the United States—enough to buy the entire U.S. grain harvest twice over—will compete with Americans for U.S. food, likely driving up food prices for the United States and the world.

Moving grain from the United States to China on the scale that is needed will likely involve loading two or three ships every day. The long line of grain-laden ships that may soon stretch across the Pacific will bring these two countries closer together economically, but managing the flow of grain to optimize the benefits for people in both countries will not be easy. It could become one of the major U.S. foreign policy challenges of this new century. "

Kína a kereskedelmi többletét arra fogja fordítani, hogy az USA-ból importálja a gabonát, kukoricát. Ez felnyomja majd az árakat is rendesen. Kérdés, hogy lesz-e elég mennyiség exportra, hogy etessük az éhes szájakat, és hogy az átlag amerikai mennyit hajlandó fizetni a kajáért. Szerintem szigorú kvótákat fognak bevezetni, hogy a belső piacon stabilizáják az árakat.