Az említett választási érdekekről és az általam is vélelmezett HIBÁS számításról szól a Chicago Tribune cikke:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2027&ncid=2027&e=2&u=/chitribts/politicalgainfrombushshiftonisraelseenasquestionable

Political gain from Bush shift on Israel seen as questionable
Sat Apr 17, 9:40 AM ET Chicago Tribune

By Michael Tackett Tribune senior correspondent

Though President Bush's policy shift favoring large, lasting Israeli settlements in the West Bank will be felt most directly in the Middle East, it also could have political echoes this fall in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Cleveland and Miami.

The Bush campaign is hopeful that one indirect product of the president's strong backing of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be to pull enough Jewish votes in battleground states to ensure his re-election.

The White House, of course, spoke of no political motive, and even some prominent Jewish Democrats applauded the president's announcement as good policy.

Several analysts said, however, that they were SKEPTICAL that the surprise announcement would have LASTING impact politically.

"A lot of these events are not transformative in terms of vote choice," said Terry Madonna, director of the Keystone Poll in Pennsylvania, one of the states expected to be the most heatedly contested in the presidential race.
"Even in this environment where we all agree there are a relatively small number of genuinely undecided voters in a highly polarized environment, a lot of events will push and pull on the undecideds, [until November]," Madonna said.
(...)
Few expect Bush to attract anything close to Reagan's level of support among Jews, but in what is expected to be an extremely close election, the swing of a few hundred or a few thousand votes in key states could be critical, and Jews who support Bush's policy on Israel could make the difference.
(...)
At the same time, in states such as Ohio and Michigan that have sizable Arab-American populations, Bush's policies could have the opposite effect, with the result a zero sum game in the presidential contest.

Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council, said that Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's quick move to endorse the policy might also blunt any advantage for Bush. [Ez mutatja a tétek nagyságát. Ettől függetlenül Kerrynek ez a hozzállása szintén tévedés, és ellentmond Kerry unilateralizmus ellenességének.]
(...)
But Jews, like other voting groups, are not predominantly single-issue voters. A strong majority of Jews in the United States are more liberal on social issues than the country at large on matters such as abortion, the death penalty and civil unions, putting them squarely at odds with Bush's positions.

"I am baffled as to what the net gain is [for Bush]," said pollster John Zogby.

While uncertain about the effect of Bush's decision on Jewish voters, Zogby said he was far more confident in predicting that Arab-Americans who had supported Bush in 2000 would reject him in 2004.
"This is a community that has really soured," Zogby said.