Törölt nick Creative Commons License 2004.04.13 0 0 182
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=4/10/2004&Cat=9&Num=12

Oil Consumption to Rise Faster Than Expected in 2004, IEA Says

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 industrialized countries, raised its forecast for world oil consumption this year for the sixth straight month as the U.S. economy recovers and demand surges in China.

Global use of gasoline, diesel and other fuels will rise by 1.7 million barrels a day to almost 80.3 million barrels daily, the biggest gain since 1997. The increase is 60,000 barrels a day more than the IEA forecast last month. In the second quarter, demand will be 300,000 barrels a day higher than previously expected, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report. ``The driving force is the expanding economy,'' Klaus Rehaag, editor of the report, said by telephone from Paris. ``We have a significant recovery from the recession that's primarily driven by the U.S. At the same point in time, China and India are expanding extremely rapidly.''

The latest increase in the demand forecast comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of a third of the world's oil, plans to cut supply this month on concern of a drop in prices. Crude oil in London has risen 15 percent to more than $33 a barrel since OPEC announced the plan Feb. 10.

The IEA also cut its estimate of oil supply from countries that don't belong to OPEC. Those nations will boost output by 1.27 million barrels a day this year, 185,000 less than forecast last month, to 50.24 million barrels a day, because of lower expectations for regions including the North Sea.

Oil demand normally falls in the second quarter because of warmer weather in the U.S. and Europe. The IEA said consumption will decline by 2 million barrels a day in the period, rather than the 2.3 million barrels expected a month ago, largely because of China. China Fuels Gain ``China's fast-rising energy consumption fuels most of the growth in global oil demand,'' the IEA report said. ``Second- quarter apparent demand may again exceed expectations, despite seasonal maintenance at several large refineries.''

China last year surpassed Japan as the second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., because of rising car sales and increased use of oil to fuel power plants. Chinese demand will rise by 13 percent this year to 6.20 million barrels a day, the IEA said.

The expected growth in world demand this year is the largest in absolute terms since 1996-1997, before Asia's fiscal crisis, when demand also rose by 1.7 million barrels a day, Rehaag said. In percentage terms, it matches the 2.1 percent rise in 2003.

Fuel inventories are declining as demand accelerates. The IEA, set up as a counterweight to OPEC in 1974, has criticized OPEC's policy of managing supply, saying it is contributing to a ``more fragile'' market. Fuel Inventories

Inventories of crude and fuels held in the 30 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell by more than 1 million barrels a day in February to 2.46 billion barrels, the IEA said.

The decline left stocks 124 million barrels above those of a year ago. Inventories equaled 52 days of demand, 2.5 days more than 2003's level, the IEA said.

OPEC at a meeting in Vienna on March 31 reaffirmed a February decision to lower its output quota by 1 million barrels a day, or 4 percent, as of April 1. Members are still pumping more oil than the quota because prices are rising.

The 10 OPEC nations outside of Iraq who agree to quotas produced 25.8 million barrels a day in March, 2.3 million more than their collective target as of April 1, the IEA said. In Iraq, daily supply rose to 2.4 million barrels a day.

Some OPEC countries said the IEA's forecast of a decline in second-quarter demand justified the reduction in quotas. The IEA raised its estimate of the need for oil from the group, also known as the call on OPEC. OPEC Call

Demand for OPEC oil will drop to 24.3 million barrels a day this quarter, 300,000 barrels a day more than expected last month, from 26.2 million a day in the first quarter. In 2004, the call will average 25.9 million barrels a day, up 100,000 barrels from last month's estimate, the report said.

Crude oil prices have been above $22 and $28 a barrel, OPEC's official target range, since December. As long as prices are high, most members aren't likely to comply with the accord to pump less oil, the IEA said. ``Cuts in actual April supply are likely to be modest, confined to perhaps Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Iran,'' the IEA said. ``Cuts from elsewhere within the organization for April look elusive in the absence of any sustained drop in prices.'' Source: Bloomberg

Lényeg:a világ olajfogyasztása gyorsabban növekszik a vártnál,miközben a termelés lassaban nő a vártnál.
Az igaz,hogy az OPEC bejelentett egy kis termeléscsökkentést,de ez gyakorlailag 0 hatású,mivel a tagok jelenleg a magas árak miatt annyit nyomnak a csővekbe ami belefér.gyakorlatilag 2,7 millió hordóval több megy ki az engedélyezett menyiségnél.
Namármost,ez annyit jelent,hogy az 1 millió hordós csökkentés az árak 28 $ alá sülyedésekor jelentenek csak valós csökkentést,addig mindenki gőzerővel nyomul.

Ha ez így folytatódik tovább,akkor az ídők végezetéig...:-)