Reményeim szerint ez lenne a helye annak a nemzetközi makroökonómiai diszkussziónak, amit már évek óta folytatunk különböző topicokon egy pár emberrel, és amely megérdemelne egy saját topikot. Valamint nagyon remélem, hogy a társalgás hamar eléri azt a szintet, hogy a topik bekerülhet a Polgazd Fórum védett keretei közé.
Az itt megvitatandó témák közé sorolnám pl az amerikai hitelválságot, és a nyomában kibontakozó recesszió gyanús folyamatokat, Kina, Ázsia emelkedését és esetleges bukását, a világméretü erőforrás, energia és élelmiszer inflációt, a tőke és pénzpiacok folyamatait, a fentieket befolyásoló geopolitikai eseményeket, stb
Nem örünék annak viszont, ha magyar aktuálpolitikai témák jönnének fel, valamint a hitelpénzrendszer vagy a derivativ, opciós piacok eredendő gonoszságáról szóló fejtegetéseket sem szivesen olvasnék itt.
China's CR450 EMU prototype, with a designed speed of 400 kilometers per hour, is scheduled to roll off the assembly line within 2024, according to a senior official with China State Railway Group.
Significant progress has been made in the innovation of railway infrastructure technology for 400 kilometers per hour and the construction of comprehensive test sections for higher speeds, said Zhang Dayong, director of the Technology and Information Department of China Railway Corporation.
The CR450's predecessor, Fuxing CR400 EMU, has been operating on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway since September 2017, with an operation speed of 350 kilometers per hour, a global benchmark for high-speed rail operation speed.
Since its launch in 2021, the CR450 Technology Innovation Project has completed the development of 17 new technology component prototypes. It has conducted 57 tests on the basis of the CR400.
In the test runs, the new project created a series of new records including the reaching of a single EMU open-line speed of 453 kilometers per hour. It's relative speed, measured when two trains move in opposite directions, reached as high as 891 kilometers per hour during the test.
The CR450 high-speed train has entered the stage of construction design and prototype development, Zhang said.
S&P Global Commodity Insights projects the share of nuclear power to be higher in the generational mix of coastal provinces at 15 percent in 2035, up from 11 percent in 2021, while China's nuclear generation capacity will reach 145 gigawatts in 2035, more than double the 2025 target level.
In China's latest 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), the government has called for nuclear generation capacity expansion to 70 GW in 2025.
According to the blue book, China continues to lead the world in the number of nuclear power units under construction at 26. Total planned installed capacity of 30.30 GW is currently under construction, ranking tops worldwide, it said.
The share of nuclear power generation is expected to reach 18 percent by 2060, which is similar to the current average level for members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
In 2023, China's BYD outpaced Tesla for the second year in a row, producing more than 3 million new energy vehicles and becoming the world's largest electric vehicle seller, while Tesla made 1.84 million cars in 2023.
Musk has previously recognized that China is Tesla's biggest rival in the EV area. "The Chinese car companies are extremely competitive," Musk said in November. "China is super good at manufacturing, and the work ethic is incredible.
"There's a lot of people who are out there who think that the top 10 car companies are going to be Tesla followed by nine Chinese car companies. I think they might not be wrong," Musk said.
Mind a 10 kinai lesz? Vagy a Tesla is ott lesz azert, de nem az elso helyen?
Kinai repulesi adatok. A nemzetkozi cargo 43%-os novekedese mogott valoszinuleg a nagy kinai webaruhazak vannak.
In terms of passenger transport, civil aviation transported nearly 180 million passengers in the first quarter, representing a 37.7 percent year-on-year increase and a 10.2 percent increase compared to the same period in 2019.
Specifically, domestic passenger transport routes served 160 million passengers, showing a 14.3 percent increase compared to the same period in 2019, while international routes served 14.12 million passengers, reaching 78 percent of the level recorded during the same period in 2019.
In cargo transport, the industry transported nearly 2.01 million tons of goods in the first quarter, marking a 34.4 percent year-on-year increase and a 19.6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2019.
Among them, domestic cargo transport routes accounted for 1.23 million tons, showing an 8.2 percent increase compared to the same period in 2019, while international routes accounted for 775,000 tons, showing a 43.6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2019.
Peter Tchir of Academy Securities recently wrote that he is "worried that as we restrict things for China, it will make them better at it. I think that we've asked before how China is making so many phones with 7 nanometer chips, when there have been restrictions in place on chips thinner than 10 nanometers."
Kina most ratesz erre egy lapattal. 2027-ig a kinai telekom cegeknek ki kell vonniuk az intel es amd chipeket.
Coal production and import volumes in China reached historic highs last year.
The national raw coal production in 2023 reached 4.71 billion metric tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percent. Coal imports soared to 474 million tons, a 61.8 percent increase compared to the previous year. Coal exports also saw a rise, reaching 4.47 million tons, an 11.7 percent increase year-on-year.
By the year-end, the number of coal mines nationwide had reduced to around 4,300, with large-scale coal mines producing over 1.2 million tons annually accounting for over 85 percent of the national total, a 5 percentage point increase from 2020.
Tobb mint 3000 szenes eromuvuk van, 1000 GW teljesitmennyel. De pl. a cementipar is foleg szennel megy (mehetne foldgazzal is), es a vagyipar is nagy szenfelhasznalo.
Ez a tiszta hus/halhus mennyisege. A teljes mennyiseg (husban levo csonttal, illetve tisztitatlan hal, rak, stb. tomeg) ezeknel 30%-kal tobb/haromszorosa.
Tobb hust es halat (joval tobbet) esznek, mint mi. A hal, rak stb. 82%-at akvakulturakban allitjak elo, a tobbi a vad fogas.
The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. That's with the proposed massive tax hikes. Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion. That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.
Ebbol 686 ezer szemelyauto. A teljes exportbol 182 ezer volt NEV.
Among the top 10 automakers by vehicle exports, Chery took the crown with 169,000 units. BYD reported the fastest growth rate, with 60,000 vehicles exported in the first two months, up 110% on a yearly basis, followed by Great Wall Motors (91.9 percent) and Changan Auto (86.8 percent).
Oroszorszag megelozte Nemetorszagot a Kinaval valo kereskedelemben. Es ezen belul a kinai exportban is, tobbet exportal Kina Oroszorszagba, mint Nemetorszagba.
Ford has only two electric models in China and GM's Buick and Chevrolet combined has four, according to their websites, although the NEV competition has been fierce in the Chinese market. In contrast, 10-year-old Chinese startup Nio has eight.
Last year, 9.5 million NEVs, including EVs and plug-in hybrids, were sold in China, accounting for 31.6 percent of total vehicle deliveries in the country, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Mathias Miedreich, chief executive of Umicore, one of the world's biggest battery materials manufacturers, said sales of Chinese electric cars were surging in contrast to the scene in the U.S. due to better performance and affordability.
"They are simply good cars and people buy them," he said in an interview with the Financial Times, referring to Chinese vehicles. "The American ones (producers) seem to struggle to bring good electric vehicles (to market)."
The first-mover advantage and innovation as a result of competition are helping Chinese NEV sales rise both in China and overseas.
Last year, over 1.2 million units were exported, of which a quarter were from Tesla's Shanghai plant. But there is no "dumping" to talk about, as Chinese NEVs are usually priced higher in overseas markets than in China, said Zhang.
One example is BYD's Atto 3, which is priced from 37,990 euros ($41,211), according to Automotive News Europe. In China, the model has a price tag from 119,800 yuan ($16,642).
Az utolso adat szepen mutatja, hogy miert csak PPP alapon van ertelme orszagok GDP-jet osszehasonlitani. Ugyanannak az autonak a megvetele az EU-ban 2.5-szer nagyobb mertekben noveli a sima nominalis GDP-t, mig PPP alapon ugyanannyival kell, hogy novelje.
96.4 millio tonna hust termeltek (ebbol "csak" 78.7 millio volt marha, sertes es szarnyas, a kecske, birka es hasonlok szokatlanul nagy sulyt kepviselnek).
4 millio hektarnyi uj erdot telepitettek.
460 milliard dollart koltottek kutatas-fejlesztesre.
34%-kal tobb NEV autot, es 54%-kal tobb napelemet gyartottak, mint egy evvel korabban.
A kinai Li indexben szereplo arufuvarozas 8.1%-kal nott tavaly, az aramfogyasztas az ev veegen 13.9%-kal nott (ez nem egesz eves adat) az elozo evhez kepest. A realgazdasag jobb allapotban van, mint amit maga a GDP-adat jelez. Kina az egyetlen nagy gazdasag lehetett tavaly, ahol a realgazdasag nott.
Meg egy erdekes adat: tavaly 132 milliard csomagot tovabbitottak, ez 100 csomag/fo a csecsemotol az aggastyanig mindenkit beleszamolva. Ez az internetes vasarlas felfutasanak hatasa, mindennapos dolog pl. friss gyumolcsot rendelni a termelotol, amit aznap leszednek es masnapra meg is erkezik. De mekkora mennyisegu szemetet produkal ennek a 132 milliard csomagnak csak a csomagolasa.
2023-ban 184 ezer kilometernyi autopalya volt Kinaban (1989-ben epult az elso, 147 kilometeres szakasz), a teljes kozuthalozat 5.44 millio kilometer volt. A gyorsvasuti halozat 45 ezer kilometer, a teljes vasuti halozat 159 ezer kilometer volt. A belso hajozasi utvonalak hossza 128 ezer kilometer, a polgari repuloterek szama 259 volt.
China has recently developed a new type of ornithopter, an aircraft that flies by flapping its wings, and experts said on Sunday that the small bird-like aircraft has huge military and civilian application potential.
Developed by a research team on aircraft bionics with the Xi'an-based Northwestern Polytechnical University, the Small Falcon ornithopter, which is the size of a bird, made its debut recently, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Saturday.
A bird flapping its wings while in flight is accompanied by the wing's stretching and folding, which increases flight efficiency. The Small Falcon ornithopter learned this pattern and can imitate birds through the development of a completely new type of cone crank mechanism, CCTV reported.
With a series of designs, which are optimized by CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulations and wind tunnel tests, the Small Falcon can fold its wings while flapping them, fold only one wing in flight, adjust the speed of wings flapping, and it can also lock its wings to perform glides, CCTV reported.
Modern fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft seek stealth mainly focusing on electromagnetic waves, noises and visibility, but ornithopters achieve stealth in terms of recognition, the expert said, "Even if you see the aircraft, you will tend to ignore it because you might think it is a bird."
139 nap alatt 2 millio utas, napi 40 vonat. Kinaiak epitettek es uzemeltetik, a szerelvenyek is kinai gyartmanyok, 420 km/h maximum sebesseget tudnanak, de itt "csak" maximum 350-nel mennek.
The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway (HSR), the first of its kind in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, has transported more than 2 million passengers in total, said China Railway International Limited on Sunday.
According to the company, the HSR has been safely operating for 139 days, carrying a total of 2,008,387 passengers, since its official operation on Oct. 17, 2023.
At present, the HSR's daily train trips have been increased from 14 to 40, and the number of passenger seats has tripled from 8,400 to more than 24,000. The highest number of passengers sent in a single day was 21,537, while the highest daily seat occupancy rate recorded was 99.6 percent.
With a design speed of 350 km per hour, the 142.3-km HSR shortens the journey between Indonesia's capital Jakarta to Bandung in West Java province from over three hours to around 40 minutes.
Kinaban kezd mindennapossa valni a vezeto nelkuli robottaxi. Foleg a repuloterek es varoskozpontok kozott.
As the world's largest autonomous driving mobility service provider, Baidu's Apollo Go has accumulated more than 4.1 million ride orders as of Sep 30, 2023. In the third quarter of last year, Apollo Go provided 821,000 rides, marking a 73 percent year-on-year surge.
Baidu's fully autonomous driving robotaxis now operate in several cities nationwide, like Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan and Shenzhen. The company plans to expand its fleet size and service area in the future and build the world's largest fully driverless ride-hailing area.
