600
00:42:50,109 --> 00:42:51,943
You can make a very simple weapon,
601
00:42:52,111 --> 00:42:54,153
a so-called "gun-type" weapon
602
00:42:54,321 --> 00:42:56,447
which was the one used
in Hiroshima.
603
00:42:56,615 --> 00:42:58,783
It was so simple,
604
00:42:58,951 --> 00:43:01,953
we didn't even test it
before we dropped it.
605
00:43:02,121 --> 00:43:04,414
It is essentially
just a gun barrel.
606
00:43:04,582 --> 00:43:07,083
And you have a target.
And you have a projectile.
607
00:43:07,251 --> 00:43:09,752
And you propel the projectile
into the target.
608
00:43:12,756 --> 00:43:14,591
You'll need
an artillery gun
609
00:43:14,758 --> 00:43:17,677
to fire one piece of H.E.U.
at the other,
610
00:43:17,845 --> 00:43:21,097
which would be bolted onto
the muzzle of the gun.
611
00:43:21,265 --> 00:43:24,017
The military sells
these things as surplus,
612
00:43:24,184 --> 00:43:26,102
but they sell them
disabled.
613
00:43:26,270 --> 00:43:28,980
You would have to make the gun
capable of shooting again.
614
00:43:29,148 --> 00:43:31,107
And you'd want
to test-fire the gun to make sure
615
00:43:31,275 --> 00:43:34,444
that it fired the projectile
at the right speed.
616
00:43:34,612 --> 00:43:38,531
This is the only thing
that you would need to do off site.
617
00:43:38,699 --> 00:43:40,533
You would need
a group of people-
618
00:43:40,701 --> 00:43:43,745
let's say,
between 15 to 20 to 25-
619
00:43:43,912 --> 00:43:46,831
who would be knowledgeable
in particular aspects
620
00:43:46,999 --> 00:43:49,917
of weapons design, of explosives.
621
00:43:50,085 --> 00:43:51,919
Two or three people
to do the machining,
622
00:43:52,087 --> 00:43:54,005
two or three people to work
on the gun,
623
00:43:54,173 --> 00:43:56,466
two or three people
to work on electronics,
624
00:43:56,634 --> 00:44:00,386
people who are experts in ballistics.
625
00:44:00,554 --> 00:44:02,472
People who know something
about nuclear physics.
626
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,474
You'd need the machinists
and the metallurgists
627
00:44:04,642 --> 00:44:06,267
to make your pieces
into the right shape
628
00:44:06,435 --> 00:44:08,061
and make sure
they all fit together.
629
00:44:08,228 --> 00:44:10,355
Ordinary explosives and detonators,
630
00:44:10,522 --> 00:44:12,982
maybe some electronic equipment.
631
00:44:13,150 --> 00:44:14,817
You could go online
632
00:44:14,985 --> 00:44:17,070
and easily find the lathe for $10,000.
633
00:44:17,237 --> 00:44:20,323
You can find the furnace
for about $50,000.
634
00:44:20,491 --> 00:44:23,159
And you can even find
a surplus recoilless rifle
635
00:44:23,327 --> 00:44:26,371
probably also for $10,000.
636
00:44:26,538 --> 00:44:30,124
More than 90%
of the effort in the Manhattan Project
637
00:44:30,292 --> 00:44:32,585
was making the nuclear material
638
00:44:32,753 --> 00:44:34,962
to make the nuclear bomb.
639
00:44:35,130 --> 00:44:37,507
If you can get hold of
that nuclear material,
640
00:44:37,675 --> 00:44:40,802
then it doesn't take
a Manhattan Project to make a bomb.
641
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,693
If the circumstances are right,
642
00:44:56,860 --> 00:45:00,613
acquiring a complete bomb
may be easier than building one.
643
00:45:00,781 --> 00:45:03,116
In Algeria in 1961,
644
00:45:03,283 --> 00:45:06,119
officers within
the French military revolted
645
00:45:06,286 --> 00:45:08,246
and tried to seize a nuclear weapon.
646
00:45:08,414 --> 00:45:10,373
As the rebels closed in,
647
00:45:10,541 --> 00:45:13,251
the weapon was detonated
in a degraded explosion
648
00:45:13,419 --> 00:45:15,586
to prevent it
from falling into the hands
649
00:45:15,754 --> 00:45:17,463
of the rebelling officers.
650
00:45:26,432 --> 00:45:29,642
The Japanese
death terror cult Aum Shinrikyo
651
00:45:29,810 --> 00:45:33,479
attempted to buy a nuclear bomb
in the Soviet Union.
652
00:45:33,647 --> 00:45:36,065
They had a lot of resources.
653
00:45:36,233 --> 00:45:38,943
We're talking well over
$1 billion of assets.
654
00:45:39,111 --> 00:45:41,821
And secondly,
they had tremendous access.
655
00:45:41,989 --> 00:45:43,990
At one point the group had
more members in Russia,
656
00:45:44,158 --> 00:45:46,617
in the former Soviet Union
than they had in Japan.
657
00:45:49,663 --> 00:45:52,540
In 1994 a senior leader
658
00:45:52,708 --> 00:45:54,542
made eight trips to Russia.
659
00:45:54,710 --> 00:45:57,295
His personal notebook
included a shopping list
660
00:45:57,463 --> 00:46:01,215
for buying a nuclear warhead
for $15 million.
661
00:46:03,135 --> 00:46:04,969
A perfectly secure nuclear weapon
662
00:46:05,137 --> 00:46:07,513
is also a perfectly unusable one.
663
00:46:07,681 --> 00:46:09,766
So here one has this paradox
664
00:46:09,933 --> 00:46:13,561
between security and usability.
665
00:46:15,981 --> 00:46:17,815
Where's the most dangerous place
666
00:46:17,983 --> 00:46:19,942
in the world right now?
667
00:46:20,110 --> 00:46:21,944
For my money, it is Pakistan.
668
00:46:22,112 --> 00:46:24,238
You've got an unstable government,
669
00:46:24,406 --> 00:46:26,991
plus enough material
for up to 100 nuclear weapons,
670
00:46:27,159 --> 00:46:30,745
plus Osama Bin Laden
in the country.
671
00:46:39,505 --> 00:46:41,339
What we've seen
672
00:46:41,507 --> 00:46:43,508
over the last two or three years
673
00:46:43,675 --> 00:46:46,844
has been a spiral
that is going downwards-
674
00:46:47,012 --> 00:46:49,764
destabilization,
the spread of the Taliban,
675
00:46:49,932 --> 00:46:53,226
the spread of radicalism,
the collapse of the economy.
676
00:46:54,728 --> 00:46:57,021
So could there be
a colonels' coup in Pakistan
677
00:46:57,189 --> 00:46:59,774
by Islamic radicals
within the military?
678
00:46:59,942 --> 00:47:02,944
And then could
nuclear weapons be at risk?
679
00:47:04,196 --> 00:47:07,865
What happens if that country destabilizes?
680
00:47:08,033 --> 00:47:11,661
What happens if the army splits?
681
00:47:11,829 --> 00:47:13,412
Who gets the weapons?
682
00:47:13,580 --> 00:47:15,373
Who gets the material
for the weapons?
683
00:47:15,541 --> 00:47:17,166
Who gets the scientists
684
00:47:17,334 --> 00:47:19,710
who know how to build
the weapons?
685
00:47:25,884 --> 00:47:28,970
There's no such thing as perfect command
686
00:47:29,137 --> 00:47:31,556
and control over nuclear weapons
687
00:47:31,723 --> 00:47:34,892
even in the most
sophisticated of arsenals.
688
00:47:39,940 --> 00:47:42,692
From the level
of the president on down,
689
00:47:42,860 --> 00:47:44,694
there are human weaknesses,
690
00:47:44,862 --> 00:47:46,779
technical problems,
691
00:47:46,947 --> 00:47:48,948
deficiencies and vulnerabilities.
692
00:47:54,663 --> 00:47:57,874
I was a launch officer
for Minuteman missiles
693
00:47:59,710 --> 00:48:02,795
and spent three years
in Montana in a hole-
694
00:48:02,963 --> 00:48:05,965
in an underground
launch control center.
695
00:48:11,346 --> 00:48:13,931
I was one of the guys responsible
696
00:48:14,099 --> 00:48:16,934
for getting these missiles
off the ground in one minute.
697
00:48:17,102 --> 00:48:20,771
We didn't call them
"Minuteman missiles" for nothing.
698
00:48:29,740 --> 00:48:31,574
When I was serving
699
00:48:31,742 --> 00:48:34,243
in the air force
as a launch officer,
700
00:48:34,411 --> 00:48:37,538
there was a device
in the launch control center
701
00:48:37,706 --> 00:48:40,333
into which 12 digits
had to be dialed in
702
00:48:40,500 --> 00:48:42,835
in order to unlock
the missiles for firing.
703
00:48:43,003 --> 00:48:46,589
This had been installed
under Robert McNamara
704
00:48:46,757 --> 00:48:49,675
over the objections
of the Strategic Air Command.
705
00:48:49,843 --> 00:48:52,094
Since they couldn't prevent
706
00:48:52,262 --> 00:48:54,555
the panel from being installed,
707
00:48:54,723 --> 00:48:56,849
the Strategic Air Command in Omaha
708
00:48:57,017 --> 00:49:00,436
had set these codes to zero,
and we all knew it.
709
00:49:00,604 --> 00:49:03,272
That was the secret
unlock code
710
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:05,524
for firing our missiles-
711
00:49:05,692 --> 00:49:08,194
12 zeros.
712
00:49:08,362 --> 00:49:10,196
In fact,
in our launch checklist
713
00:49:10,364 --> 00:49:12,198
we had to ensure
714
00:49:12,366 --> 00:49:15,451
that the unlock code
was set to all zeros
715
00:49:15,619 --> 00:49:18,245
before we completed
the launch sequence.
716
00:49:23,752 --> 00:49:26,295
This changed in 1977
717
00:49:26,463 --> 00:49:28,798
when they started using
actual codes.
718
00:49:28,966 --> 00:49:31,968
But until then,
I and one other crew member
719
00:49:32,135 --> 00:49:34,887
could have actually formatted
a launch order-
720
00:49:35,055 --> 00:49:38,057
a completely valid launch order
721
00:49:38,225 --> 00:49:40,059
and transmitted it
722
00:49:40,227 --> 00:49:42,895
to the entire American
strategic arsenal.
723
00:49:43,063 --> 00:49:45,481
It looks like
we're in a shooting war.
724
00:49:45,649 --> 00:49:48,150
Aw hell.
725
00:49:48,318 --> 00:49:49,986
Are the Russians involved, sir?
726
00:49:50,153 --> 00:49:51,445
Mandrake, that's all I've been told.
727
00:49:51,613 --> 00:49:53,072
It just came in on the red phone.
728
00:49:53,240 --> 00:49:54,740
My orders are for this base
to be sealed tight,
729
00:49:54,908 --> 00:49:56,283
and that's what I mean to do-
seal it tight.
730
00:49:56,451 --> 00:50:00,746
Now I want you to transmit Plan R-
731
00:50:00,914 --> 00:50:02,915
R for Robert- to the wing.
732
00:50:03,083 --> 00:50:06,419
Plan R, for Robert.
- Is it that bad, sir?
733
00:50:06,586 --> 00:50:08,963
It looks like it's pretty hairy.
- Yes, sir.
734
00:50:09,131 --> 00:50:11,007
I remember watching "Dr. Strangelove"
735
00:50:11,174 --> 00:50:13,801
and thinking
they had it all wrong.
736
00:50:13,969 --> 00:50:16,303
You don't need to be a general.
737
00:50:16,471 --> 00:50:18,472
We were only lieutenants,
738
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:20,558
but we could've started World War lll
739
00:50:20,726 --> 00:50:22,768
just as easily
as General Jack Ripper.
740
00:50:22,936 --> 00:50:25,438
We could have triggered implementation
741
00:50:25,605 --> 00:50:27,273
of the U.S. nuclear war plan
742
00:50:27,441 --> 00:50:30,026
involving thousands
and thousands of nuclear weapons
743
00:50:30,193 --> 00:50:33,696
fired at the Soviet Union and China.
744
00:50:33,864 --> 00:50:36,615
Stand by. Message follows.
745
00:50:36,783 --> 00:50:40,077
Alfa Tango Golf Lima.
746
00:50:40,245 --> 00:50:42,079
The life of a launch officer
747
00:50:42,247 --> 00:50:43,998
is really kind of Pavlovian.
748
00:50:44,166 --> 00:50:47,501
You have been trained
and conditioned so thoroughly,
749
00:50:47,669 --> 00:50:49,670
you kind of march lockstep
750
00:50:49,838 --> 00:50:52,965
into a very well-rehearsed script
751
00:50:53,133 --> 00:50:55,593
that's driven by checklists.
752
00:50:55,761 --> 00:50:57,845
Step one- launch keys inserted.
753
00:50:58,013 --> 00:50:59,722
Roger.
754
00:50:59,890 --> 00:51:02,224
We would jump up, unlock our safe,
755
00:51:02,392 --> 00:51:04,727
take out codes...
756
00:51:08,065 --> 00:51:10,858
...check the codes
against the message,
757
00:51:11,026 --> 00:51:12,860
then proceed through
a launch checklist
758
00:51:13,028 --> 00:51:15,613
that takes about one minute
to carry out.
759
00:51:17,949 --> 00:51:21,118
Let's enable the missiles.
Program slide switch enabled.
760
00:51:21,286 --> 00:51:22,369
Roger.
- Flight all. L.F. all.
761
00:51:22,537 --> 00:51:23,829
Online code inserted.
762
00:51:23,997 --> 00:51:26,082
Stand by.
763
00:51:26,249 --> 00:51:27,875
Online codes inserted.
764
00:51:28,043 --> 00:51:30,127
Enable switch enabled.
- It's enabled.
765
00:51:30,295 --> 00:51:32,546
At the end of that process
766
00:51:32,714 --> 00:51:34,548
the two of you turn keys
767
00:51:34,716 --> 00:51:36,550
and launch up to 50 missiles
768
00:51:36,718 --> 00:51:38,928
at the Soviet Union and/or China.
769
00:51:54,611 --> 00:51:58,239
Today, the posture
of the United States and Russia
770
00:51:58,406 --> 00:52:02,368
is exactly the same
as it was during the Cold War.
771
00:52:02,536 --> 00:52:04,578
So if the orders went down right now,
772
00:52:04,746 --> 00:52:07,998
20 years after the fall
of the Berlin Wall,
773
00:52:08,166 --> 00:52:10,501
it would take about two minutes
774
00:52:10,669 --> 00:52:14,839
to launch all
of the U.S. nuclear ballistic missiles
775
00:52:15,006 --> 00:52:17,091
out of their tubes in the Midwest,
776
00:52:17,259 --> 00:52:19,093
about that length of time
777
00:52:19,261 --> 00:52:21,178
for the Russians to do the same.
778
00:52:21,346 --> 00:52:24,390
And then it would take
another 10 to 12 minutes
779
00:52:24,558 --> 00:52:27,726
for everything else
that's on launch-ready alert
780
00:52:27,894 --> 00:52:30,312
to be fired...
781
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:43,075
so that within 15 minutes
782
00:52:43,243 --> 00:52:45,536
all of the forces
on launch-ready alert
783
00:52:45,704 --> 00:52:47,788
would be in the air
784
00:52:47,956 --> 00:52:50,166
on their flight to the other
side of the planet-
785
00:52:50,333 --> 00:52:52,918
2000 bombs,
786
00:52:53,086 --> 00:52:56,589
strategic nuclear weapons,
very high-yield.
787
00:52:56,756 --> 00:52:59,842
And they could kill
788
00:53:00,010 --> 00:53:02,261
over 100 million Russians
and Americans
789
00:53:02,429 --> 00:53:04,597
within 30 minutes.
790
00:53:12,147 --> 00:53:14,398
When we were
working on nuclear arms control,
791
00:53:14,566 --> 00:53:18,068
I found myself in a meeting
in the Pentagon with a colonel
792
00:53:18,236 --> 00:53:20,112
and we got into a short
exchange about this.
793
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:23,199
And in the context
of this exchange, he said:
794
00:53:23,366 --> 00:53:25,618
"But I don't understand
what would be such a big deal
795
00:53:25,785 --> 00:53:27,870
if there were
a nuclear exchange.
796
00:53:28,038 --> 00:53:30,456
Only about 500 million
people would die.
797
00:53:30,624 --> 00:53:33,209
Life would go on aftewards. "
798
00:53:35,003 --> 00:53:37,379
And I can remember
having a feeling
799
00:53:37,547 --> 00:53:40,758
like Woody Allen
in "Annie Hall"-
800
00:53:40,926 --> 00:53:43,719
"I'm sorry, I've got an appointment
back on planet Earth. "
801
00:54:16,503 --> 00:54:18,337
I don't think that anyone really knows
802
00:54:18,505 --> 00:54:21,423
how many nuclear weapons
there are on the planet today.
803
00:54:23,426 --> 00:54:25,928
I haven't got a-
- Does anyone know that?
804
00:54:27,180 --> 00:54:28,222
100?
805
00:54:29,516 --> 00:54:32,351
Maybe thousands, I don't know.
Far more than I know.
806
00:54:35,146 --> 00:54:36,355
6,000.
807
00:54:39,651 --> 00:54:41,277
I don't know.
15,000.
808
00:54:41,444 --> 00:54:43,487
20,000.
- 50,000?
809
00:54:43,655 --> 00:54:45,781
100,000.
- 500,000.
810
00:54:45,949 --> 00:54:49,243
There's enough nuclear firepower
on one U.S. nuclear sub
811
00:54:49,411 --> 00:54:51,078
to annihilate probably
half the planet.
812
00:54:53,331 --> 00:54:54,873
I've heard people say
813
00:54:55,041 --> 00:54:57,209
that we have enough nuclear
weapons to create a new sun.
814
00:54:57,377 --> 00:55:00,337
It only takes a couple
to eliminate this city.
815
00:55:00,505 --> 00:55:02,464
Do you know
how many there are?
816
00:55:07,971 --> 00:55:11,765
We estimate that
there are about 23,000 nuclear weapons
817
00:55:11,933 --> 00:55:15,477
in the world still.
818
00:55:15,645 --> 00:55:19,231
The good news is
there used to be 60,000.
819
00:55:19,399 --> 00:55:22,693
So we've cut those arsenals
by more than half.
820
00:55:22,861 --> 00:55:25,237
But we- the United States still has
821
00:55:25,405 --> 00:55:29,366
about 1500 hydrogen bombs
on missiles
822
00:55:29,534 --> 00:55:33,662
poised for launch
in 15 minutes or less.
823
00:55:33,830 --> 00:55:37,499
The really bad news is
the Russians have the same.
824
00:55:41,713 --> 00:55:44,173
If the Russians fired missiles
825
00:55:44,341 --> 00:55:48,677
at the United States,
826
00:55:48,845 --> 00:55:51,889
the first warning
would come from satellites.
827
00:55:52,057 --> 00:55:53,891
And they could detect
828
00:55:54,059 --> 00:55:56,226
the flame from the booster rocket
829
00:55:56,394 --> 00:55:58,645
within seconds,
830
00:55:58,813 --> 00:56:01,774
easily within a minute.
831
00:56:01,941 --> 00:56:04,443
Suddenly this early-warning hub
832
00:56:04,611 --> 00:56:06,487
in the United States
833
00:56:06,654 --> 00:56:08,530
would become very frenzied
834
00:56:08,698 --> 00:56:10,532
to try to figure out
835
00:56:10,700 --> 00:56:12,534
whether this is a false alarm
836
00:56:12,702 --> 00:56:14,536
or whether this is a real attack,
837
00:56:14,704 --> 00:56:17,414
and determine this
within 60 seconds.
838
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:26,006
The president would receive a briefing
839
00:56:26,174 --> 00:56:29,051
from the duty officer
840
00:56:29,219 --> 00:56:32,012
at Strategic Command Headquarters.
841
00:56:32,180 --> 00:56:34,431
That briefing of the president
842
00:56:34,599 --> 00:56:38,644
of his response options
and their consequences
843
00:56:38,812 --> 00:56:42,856
has to be delivered
in as little as 30 seconds.
844
00:56:46,277 --> 00:56:48,570
The president
normally would have
845
00:56:48,738 --> 00:56:50,614
no more than 12 minutes
to make a decision,
846
00:56:50,782 --> 00:56:54,410
and maybe as little as 10 seconds.
847
00:56:56,788 --> 00:56:59,915
I knew
that if the Soviets did launch an attack,
848
00:57:00,083 --> 00:57:03,419
that it would take 26 minutes
for an I.C.B.M.
849
00:57:03,586 --> 00:57:05,421
to leave Russian soil
850
00:57:05,588 --> 00:57:07,923
and land in Washington
or New York.
851
00:57:08,091 --> 00:57:11,260
And I had that much time
to decide how to respond.
852
00:57:37,662 --> 00:57:39,872
The timeline was very short.
853
00:57:40,039 --> 00:57:42,332
He had just a few minutes
to make a decision
854
00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:47,004
how to respond,
at what level of intensity.
855
00:57:47,172 --> 00:57:50,340
Somewhere before the 10th minute
856
00:57:50,508 --> 00:57:53,844
the order to execute would be issued.
857
00:57:55,138 --> 00:57:56,972
Strategic Air Command
858
00:57:57,140 --> 00:58:00,267
probably would be
airborne already by then
859
00:58:00,435 --> 00:58:03,061
just as a precaution.
860
00:58:06,065 --> 00:58:09,401
There might be
a presidential evacuation
861
00:58:09,569 --> 00:58:11,403
so that the president would survive
862
00:58:11,571 --> 00:58:14,865
an attack on Washington,
863
00:58:15,033 --> 00:58:16,992
although I know of cases
864
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:21,079
in which the president chose
not to be evacuated.
865
00:58:21,247 --> 00:58:24,416
And roughly by the 28th minute
866
00:58:24,584 --> 00:58:26,668
at the latest,
867
00:58:26,836 --> 00:58:31,173
those of us not evacuated
would be dead.
868
00:58:39,015 --> 00:58:42,309
For us it was a kind of suicide duty.
869
00:58:42,477 --> 00:58:46,438
Any missile landing
within half a mile of our location
870
00:58:46,606 --> 00:58:48,607
would probably have killed us.
871
00:58:48,775 --> 00:58:51,109
If we had survived the attack,
872
00:58:51,277 --> 00:58:55,572
we were supposed to go
to a designated rendezvous point.
873
00:58:55,740 --> 00:58:59,159
Our air would only last 24 hours.
874
00:58:59,327 --> 00:59:02,788
So we'd go out through an escape tube
875
00:59:02,956 --> 00:59:04,790
which was filled with sand.
876
00:59:04,958 --> 00:59:06,792
We would have to release
the bolts on the cover
877
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:08,919
and let the sand fall through
878
00:59:09,087 --> 00:59:11,630
and then crawl up the tube.
879
00:59:13,758 --> 00:59:16,468
Our tube came up
under the parking lot,
880
00:59:16,636 --> 00:59:20,264
so we would have to
break through the asphalt to get out.
881
00:59:22,725 --> 00:59:26,478
The rendezvous point
might be 50 or 100 miles away,
882
00:59:26,646 --> 00:59:29,856
and you'd have to walk.
883
00:59:31,818 --> 00:59:34,027
Didn't really matter though.
884
00:59:34,195 --> 00:59:37,114
Everyone knew the radiation
would kill us quickly anyway
885
00:59:37,282 --> 00:59:39,616
and you'd never make it
to the rendezvous.
886
01:00:08,938 --> 01:00:12,316
In 1995 Pete Sampras won
887
01:00:12,483 --> 01:00:15,360
the U.S. Open and Wimbledon;
888
01:00:15,528 --> 01:00:19,281
George Clooney made
his first big movie;
889
01:00:19,449 --> 01:00:23,619
a bomb destroyed
the federal building in Oklahoma City;
890
01:00:23,786 --> 01:00:27,497
O.J. Simpson was
acquitted of murder;
891
01:00:27,665 --> 01:00:29,541
and we also came close
892
01:00:29,709 --> 01:00:32,336
to an accidental
nuclear missile launch.
893
01:00:35,632 --> 01:00:38,425
On January 25th, 1995,
894
01:00:38,593 --> 01:00:40,802
the United States launched
a rocket from Norway
895
01:00:40,970 --> 01:00:43,013
to study the northern lights.
896
01:00:43,181 --> 01:00:45,474
We told the Russians
that we were gonna launch that rocket,
897
01:00:45,642 --> 01:00:49,770
but somebody in Moscow
forgot to pass word on it.
898
01:00:49,937 --> 01:00:52,105
When they picked up
the four stages of this rocket,
899
01:00:52,273 --> 01:00:54,483
they initially interpreted this
900
01:00:54,651 --> 01:00:58,487
as four warheads
from a U.S. nuclear submarine
901
01:00:58,655 --> 01:01:00,781
which we often station
off the coast of Noway,
902
01:01:00,948 --> 01:01:03,075
possibly directed at Moscow.
903
01:01:03,242 --> 01:01:05,911
That fit exactly the characteristics
904
01:01:06,079 --> 01:01:07,913
of the beginning of a nuclear strike:
905
01:01:08,081 --> 01:01:09,915
One missile coming over,
906
01:01:10,083 --> 01:01:11,833
exploding in the atmosphere
907
01:01:12,001 --> 01:01:13,835
sending out an electromagnetic pulse
908
01:01:14,003 --> 01:01:15,962
that would fry all the electronics-
909
01:01:16,130 --> 01:01:18,590
radar, surveillance, computers-
910
01:01:18,758 --> 01:01:20,592
in the country to be attacked,
911
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:24,262
followed by an onslaught
of nuclear weapons.
912
01:01:24,430 --> 01:01:26,973
And for the first time
in the nuclear age,
913
01:01:27,141 --> 01:01:29,935
the Russians actually opened up
the nuclear football.
914
01:01:30,103 --> 01:01:31,812
They went to President Yeltsin;
they opened up
915
01:01:31,979 --> 01:01:34,606
the command and control
launch codes- the button-
916
01:01:34,774 --> 01:01:37,317
put it on the desk and said,
"We're under attack. "
917
01:01:37,485 --> 01:01:39,695
Boris Yeltsin was basically given
918
01:01:39,862 --> 01:01:41,905
five minutes
to decide what to do.
919
01:01:42,073 --> 01:01:44,491
Fortunately, Yeltsin wasn't drunk
920
01:01:44,659 --> 01:01:47,577
and he didn't believe
what the military was telling him.
921
01:01:47,745 --> 01:01:49,121
He said,
"There must be some mistake. "
922
01:01:49,288 --> 01:01:53,458
Both the U.S. and Russia guide
their nuclear response
923
01:01:53,626 --> 01:01:55,669
with a doctrine called
"Launch on Warning. "
924
01:01:55,837 --> 01:01:58,338
It is the policy that if you believe
you're under attack,
925
01:01:58,506 --> 01:02:01,466
you're supposed to launch your missiles.
You don't wait for them to land.
926
01:02:01,634 --> 01:02:03,844
According to Russian military doctrine,
927
01:02:04,011 --> 01:02:06,471
Boris Yeltsin should have launched
an all-out nuclear attack
928
01:02:06,639 --> 01:02:08,807
on the United States that morning.
929
01:02:08,975 --> 01:02:10,934
We don't know what happened
in the Kremlin.
930
01:02:11,102 --> 01:02:13,520
All we know is that he didn't.
931
01:02:19,235 --> 01:02:21,737
There have been a number of false alarms
932
01:02:21,904 --> 01:02:23,739
during the Cold War.
933
01:02:23,906 --> 01:02:26,908
We've had occasions
when the rising moon
934
01:02:27,076 --> 01:02:31,246
was interpreted to be
a Russian I.C.B.M. attack.
935
01:02:32,915 --> 01:02:36,376
A flock of geese was thought
to be bombers.
936
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:41,965
A training tape was
slipped into a computer
937
01:02:42,133 --> 01:02:45,427
at our command and control
headquarters at NORAD.
938
01:02:45,595 --> 01:02:47,220
Everyone involved thought
939
01:02:47,388 --> 01:02:49,306
there was an actual attack underway.
940
01:02:49,474 --> 01:02:52,100
A tape was inserted into
941
01:02:52,268 --> 01:02:54,770
the early warning hub in Colorado
942
01:02:54,937 --> 01:02:57,939
that simulated
a large-scale Soviet nuclear attack.
943
01:02:58,107 --> 01:03:00,192
And no one realized
944
01:03:00,359 --> 01:03:02,444
that it was just a training tape
945
01:03:02,612 --> 01:03:05,322
until the United States had gone into
946
01:03:05,490 --> 01:03:08,617
this sort of frenzied
checklist procedure
947
01:03:08,785 --> 01:03:11,661
to prepare for nuclear war.
948
01:03:18,127 --> 01:03:19,961
Airborne command posts actually
949
01:03:20,129 --> 01:03:22,172
in some cases took off.
950
01:03:22,340 --> 01:03:24,591
The president's doomsday plane
951
01:03:24,759 --> 01:03:28,929
actually left its base in preparation
952
01:03:29,096 --> 01:03:32,808
for an incoming Soviet strike.
953
01:03:32,975 --> 01:03:34,684
Senator Charles Percy
954
01:03:34,852 --> 01:03:37,103
happened to be there at the time
955
01:03:37,271 --> 01:03:39,564
and said there was absolute panic.
956
01:03:45,571 --> 01:03:48,240
Another false alarm was caused
957
01:03:48,407 --> 01:03:50,325
by a computer chip malfunction
958
01:03:50,493 --> 01:03:52,327
that generated indications
959
01:03:52,495 --> 01:03:55,080
of a large-scale Soviet attack.
960
01:03:55,248 --> 01:03:58,291
We raised the alert levels.
961
01:03:59,585 --> 01:04:02,754
Crews took launch codes
out of their safes.
962
01:04:02,922 --> 01:04:05,966
They inserted keys into
the launch switches.
963
01:04:09,262 --> 01:04:11,096
Zbigniew Brzezinski
964
01:04:11,264 --> 01:04:13,265
was woken up
in the middle of the night
965
01:04:13,432 --> 01:04:15,559
with the assured instruction
966
01:04:15,726 --> 01:04:17,561
that a nuclear attack
was underway
967
01:04:17,728 --> 01:04:19,938
and he had to go wake up
President Carter.
968
01:04:21,816 --> 01:04:23,775
There was eight minutes' worth
969
01:04:23,943 --> 01:04:26,486
of nuclear launch preparations
970
01:04:26,654 --> 01:04:28,697
that were triggered
971
01:04:28,865 --> 01:04:31,032
by a malfunctioning computer chip
972
01:04:31,200 --> 01:04:33,743
that cost less than a dollar.
973
01:04:35,872 --> 01:04:39,040
You know,
having missiles on hair trigger
974
01:04:39,208 --> 01:04:41,376
is an accident waiting to happen.
975
01:04:41,544 --> 01:04:45,964
You know, as Fermi said about physics,
976
01:04:46,132 --> 01:04:49,509
"What isn't forbidden is compulsory,"
977
01:04:49,677 --> 01:04:52,637
will eventually happen.
978
01:04:52,805 --> 01:04:55,557
There's nothing that makes
979
01:04:55,725 --> 01:04:58,101
the launch
of nuclear weapons impossible.
980
01:04:58,269 --> 01:05:00,812
If the probability isn't zero,
981
01:05:00,980 --> 01:05:03,148
it will happen.
982
01:05:56,285 --> 01:05:58,244
Right now the world has a policy
983
01:05:58,412 --> 01:06:00,330
that is based heavily
on technology denial-
984
01:06:00,498 --> 01:06:02,999
you keep something secret
and you call it a day.
985
01:06:03,167 --> 01:06:05,794
But secrecy has a half-life.
986
01:06:05,962 --> 01:06:08,380
Things leak out.
987
01:06:08,547 --> 01:06:12,342
Centrifuges happen to be
the technology
988
01:06:12,510 --> 01:06:15,470
that is going to change the game.
989
01:06:15,638 --> 01:06:18,556
They are going to democratize
990
01:06:18,724 --> 01:06:22,602
the process of building
nuclear weapons.
991
01:06:22,770 --> 01:06:26,106
Uranium exists everywhere on earth.
992
01:06:26,273 --> 01:06:29,025
It's more common than tin.
993
01:06:31,070 --> 01:06:34,489
99.3% of all uranium
is uranium 238,
994
01:06:34,657 --> 01:06:37,575
the isotope that cannot be
used for nuclear weapons.
995
01:06:37,743 --> 01:06:41,079
It's that 0.7% that you need
to separate out.
996
01:06:43,749 --> 01:06:47,377
A centrifuge- it's basically a tube.
997
01:06:47,545 --> 01:06:49,671
It spins the uranium
in gas form
998
01:06:49,839 --> 01:06:53,758
and it pushes
the heavier atoms towards the wall
999
01:06:53,926 --> 01:06:55,760
and the lighter atoms
towards the center.
1000
01:06:55,928 --> 01:06:58,346
And then you can skim off
the light atoms.
1001
01:07:02,226 --> 01:07:06,062
And you do this over
and over and over again
1002
01:07:06,230 --> 01:07:09,024
many dozens of times
1003
01:07:09,191 --> 01:07:11,067
and eventually you purify it
1004
01:07:11,235 --> 01:07:13,278
to a level that you can
use in a bomb.
1005
01:07:16,615 --> 01:07:19,534
The common wisdom is
that they're very complicated-
1006
01:07:22,163 --> 01:07:24,330
technologies that take
countries decades to build
1007
01:07:24,498 --> 01:07:26,583
and are the highest achievements.
1008
01:07:26,751 --> 01:07:28,710
But the fact is that centrifuges are
1009
01:07:28,878 --> 01:07:30,712
1950s technology.
1010
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:34,174
And this is 2010.
1011
01:07:34,341 --> 01:07:36,718
Enriching uranium is still
1012
01:07:36,886 --> 01:07:38,720
beyond the reach of the individual.
1013
01:07:38,888 --> 01:07:40,722
It's a logistical feat,
1014
01:07:40,890 --> 01:07:42,724
requiring thousands of centrifuges
1015
01:07:42,892 --> 01:07:45,769
working for months or years.
1016
01:07:45,936 --> 01:07:47,937
But highly-enriched uranium
1017
01:07:48,105 --> 01:07:50,982
is now within the grasp
of really any country.
1018
01:07:51,150 --> 01:07:52,984
And once you have the H.E.U.,
1019
01:07:53,152 --> 01:07:55,653
making a crude bomb is easy.
1020
01:08:33,776 --> 01:08:36,820
We're not just discussing limits
1021
01:08:36,987 --> 01:08:39,781
on a further increase
of nuclear weapons.
1022
01:08:39,949 --> 01:08:43,034
We seek instead
to reduce their number.
1023
01:08:43,202 --> 01:08:47,205
We seek the total elimination one day
1024
01:08:47,373 --> 01:08:50,416
of nuclear weapons
from the face of the earth.
1025
01:10:47,284 --> 01:10:50,161
10, nine, eight,
1026
01:10:50,329 --> 01:10:52,997
seven, six, five,
1027
01:10:53,165 --> 01:10:57,293
four, three, two, one!
1028
01:11:12,518 --> 01:11:14,852
Happy New Year, man!
1029
01:11:18,107 --> 01:11:21,192
Happy New Year! Love you all!
1030
01:11:37,084 --> 01:11:39,585
In the first millionth of a second,
1031
01:11:39,753 --> 01:11:42,714
the fireball is 500' across.
1032
01:11:42,881 --> 01:11:44,716
Within 10 seconds,
1033
01:11:44,883 --> 01:11:47,260
it would grow to over one mile.
1034
01:11:47,428 --> 01:11:50,346
The temperature
would rise to 20,000,000ᵒF-
1035
01:11:50,514 --> 01:11:52,515
hotter than the surface of the sun.
1036
01:11:52,683 --> 01:11:54,517
The blast would generate winds
1037
01:11:54,685 --> 01:11:57,103
in excess of 650mph.
1038
01:11:57,271 --> 01:11:59,147
Forces of that magnitude can destroy
1039
01:11:59,315 --> 01:12:01,357
anything that people can build.
1040
01:12:01,525 --> 01:12:03,985
The strongest buildings
would be reduced to rubble.
1041
01:12:04,153 --> 01:12:06,321
Tens of square blocks
1042
01:12:06,488 --> 01:12:09,449
would just be melted,
would just be evaporated.
1043
01:12:09,616 --> 01:12:11,909
Everything would be vaporized-
1044
01:12:12,077 --> 01:12:14,370
the buildings, the cars,
1045
01:12:14,538 --> 01:12:17,248
the trees, the people,
1046
01:12:17,416 --> 01:12:19,792
the upper level of the earth itself.
1047
01:12:32,348 --> 01:12:35,767
There were
76,000 buildings in Hiroshima.
1048
01:12:35,934 --> 01:12:38,227
70,000 of them
were destroyed.
1049
01:12:38,395 --> 01:12:40,229
The hospitals,
the fire stations,
1050
01:12:40,397 --> 01:12:43,274
the communication equipment
the military installations-
1051
01:12:43,442 --> 01:12:45,276
everything just flattened.
1052
01:12:45,444 --> 01:12:47,403
In the first five to six miles,
1053
01:12:47,571 --> 01:12:51,407
virtually everyone
in that five-mile radius is going to die.
1054
01:12:51,575 --> 01:12:53,701
Somewhere between
three and four million people
1055
01:12:53,869 --> 01:12:56,496
dead immediately
in the first five miles.
1056
01:12:56,663 --> 01:12:58,498
If you're lucky enough
1057
01:12:58,665 --> 01:13:00,500
to be eight or nine miles
away from the blast,
1058
01:13:00,667 --> 01:13:02,335
then you would experience it
1059
01:13:02,503 --> 01:13:04,837
as blast effects-
windows being shattered.
1060
01:13:05,005 --> 01:13:06,839
Enough to shatter every window
1061
01:13:07,007 --> 01:13:09,300
and turn it into hundreds
of missiles flying outward
1062
01:13:09,468 --> 01:13:11,928
from the center of the explosion
at speeds more than 100mph.
1063
01:13:12,096 --> 01:13:14,013
After the blast, it's the firestorm
1064
01:13:14,181 --> 01:13:16,015
that would just combust
everything in sight.
1065
01:13:16,183 --> 01:13:18,017
Everything flammable would burn.
1066
01:13:18,185 --> 01:13:20,228
Paper, cardboard, cloth,
1067
01:13:20,396 --> 01:13:22,522
heating oil, gasoline-
everything would ignite.
1068
01:13:22,689 --> 01:13:24,649
Whole blocks would catch fire.
1069
01:13:24,817 --> 01:13:26,984
Hundreds of thousands
of fires would coalesce
1070
01:13:27,152 --> 01:13:29,612
into a giant firestorm 11 miles across.
1071
01:13:29,780 --> 01:13:32,031
Everything catches on fire.
Then there's no air to breathe.
1072
01:13:32,199 --> 01:13:35,493
All the oxygen would
be consumed and everyone would die.
1073
01:13:37,746 --> 01:13:39,705
It is useless to talk about-
1074
01:13:39,873 --> 01:13:41,874
will you die because
you're burned to death
1075
01:13:42,042 --> 01:13:44,794
or because you've been blown
to bits by the blast?
1076
01:13:44,962 --> 01:13:46,796
Anyone looking in the direction
1077
01:13:46,964 --> 01:13:48,840
of the nuclear explosion-
they will be blinded.
1078
01:13:49,007 --> 01:13:51,384
Lungs or eardrums
ruptured by the pressure,
1079
01:13:51,552 --> 01:13:53,845
crush injuries from buildings
falling onto them,
1080
01:13:54,012 --> 01:13:56,931
broken bones when they've been
thrown through the air against buildings.
1081
01:13:57,099 --> 01:13:58,933
Hundreds of thousands,
possibly even millions,
1082
01:13:59,101 --> 01:14:00,893
would die from the fallout.
1083
01:14:01,061 --> 01:14:04,605
The body does have
a repair rate for radiation.
1084
01:14:04,773 --> 01:14:07,733
But the doses are so heavy
and coming so quickly
1085
01:14:07,901 --> 01:14:09,902
that it will overwhelm
the body's repair mechanisms.
1086
01:14:10,070 --> 01:14:12,655
The 450 to 700 RAD dose kills you
1087
01:14:12,823 --> 01:14:14,866
because it wipes out
your blood cells.
1088
01:14:15,033 --> 01:14:18,619
Over 3000 RADs-
you will go into seizures, immediate coma,
1089
01:14:18,787 --> 01:14:21,706
and you will die within a matter
of minutes to hours.
1090
01:14:21,874 --> 01:14:23,791
Most of the doctors are gonna be dead.
1091
01:14:23,959 --> 01:14:25,460
Most of the nurses are
gonna be dead.
1092
01:14:25,627 --> 01:14:27,670
Most of the hospitals
are gonna be destroyed.
1093
01:14:27,838 --> 01:14:30,131
Huge numbers of casualties
and no medical equipment.
1094
01:14:30,299 --> 01:14:32,216
There will be a need for antibiotics-
1095
01:14:32,384 --> 01:14:34,135
tens of units of blood per person.
1096
01:14:34,303 --> 01:14:36,137
There won't be any electrical power.
1097
01:14:36,305 --> 01:14:38,264
Vast amounts of intravenous fluid
1098
01:14:38,432 --> 01:14:40,224
to sustain people who've been
burned- just burned.
1099
01:14:40,392 --> 01:14:42,435
You couldn't treat all the burn victims.
1100
01:14:42,603 --> 01:14:44,937
And then at a certain point
the casualties become so high,
1101
01:14:45,105 --> 01:14:47,982
it's pointless to try to make
any sense out of it.
1102
01:14:48,150 --> 01:14:50,568
The doctor in the Red Cross hospital
1103
01:14:50,736 --> 01:14:52,570
who turns into an automaton,
1104
01:14:52,738 --> 01:14:55,323
binding, swabbing, daubing,
1105
01:14:55,491 --> 01:14:57,950
binding, swabbing,
daubing.
1106
01:14:58,118 --> 01:15:01,412
And that's what descended
on the physicians and nurses
1107
01:15:01,580 --> 01:15:03,748
in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
1108
01:15:03,916 --> 01:15:06,542
Someone would
surely claim they had 10 more
1109
01:15:06,710 --> 01:15:09,128
that were already hidden somewhere
1110
01:15:09,296 --> 01:15:11,839
and they'd start setting them off
unless their demands were met.
1111
01:15:12,007 --> 01:15:14,467
Every other big city is gonna wonder
1112
01:15:14,635 --> 01:15:16,469
whether they might be a target.
1113
01:15:16,637 --> 01:15:18,888
Public panic,
people fleeing major cities.
1114
01:15:19,056 --> 01:15:21,641
You could forget about rules
about search and seizure.
1115
01:15:21,808 --> 01:15:23,976
You're gonna have to be
searching everywhere.
1116
01:15:24,144 --> 01:15:26,521
You can forget about civil liberties
1117
01:15:26,688 --> 01:15:29,273
when people realize
a whole city was just destroyed.
1118
01:15:29,441 --> 01:15:32,193
You'd take the Bill of Rights,
you'd put it up on a shelf,
1119
01:15:32,361 --> 01:15:34,070
and you might never see it again.
1120
01:15:34,238 --> 01:15:36,280
People would be demanding
draconian measures
1121
01:15:36,448 --> 01:15:40,076
to make sure
that another city didn't go up.
1122
01:16:10,399 --> 01:16:13,651
A few people laughed.
1123
01:16:13,819 --> 01:16:16,862
A few people cried.
1124
01:16:17,030 --> 01:16:19,365
Most people were silent.
1125
01:16:22,744 --> 01:16:25,413
I remembered the line
1126
01:16:25,581 --> 01:16:28,874
from the Hindu scripture,
the Bhagavad Gita-
1127
01:16:31,253 --> 01:16:34,964
Vishnu
1128
01:16:35,132 --> 01:16:37,925
is trying to persuade the prince
1129
01:16:38,093 --> 01:16:41,304
that he should do his duty
1130
01:16:41,471 --> 01:16:44,015
and to impress him
1131
01:16:44,182 --> 01:16:47,476
takes on his multiarmed form
1132
01:16:47,644 --> 01:16:49,937
and says,
1133
01:16:50,105 --> 01:16:51,939
"Now I am become Death,
1134
01:16:52,107 --> 01:16:54,900
the destroyer of worlds. "
1135
01:17:17,716 --> 01:17:20,676
Every man, woman, and child
1136
01:17:20,844 --> 01:17:24,472
lives under
a nuclear sword of Damocles,
1137
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,683
hanging by the slenderest of threads
1138
01:17:27,851 --> 01:17:30,478
capable of being cut at any moment
1139
01:17:30,646 --> 01:17:34,815
by accident or miscalculation
or by madness.
1140
01:17:34,983 --> 01:17:38,027
The weapons of war
must be abolished
1141
01:17:38,195 --> 01:17:41,197
before they abolish us.
1142
01:17:55,295 --> 01:17:58,047
The Cuban Missile Crisis endangered
1143
01:17:58,215 --> 01:18:00,966
the very existence of our nation.
1144
01:18:01,134 --> 01:18:04,637
We came that close to nuclear war.
1145
01:18:07,891 --> 01:18:11,018
Neither the Soviets nor we, the U.S.,
1146
01:18:11,186 --> 01:18:14,772
intended to put our nations at that risk.
1147
01:18:14,940 --> 01:18:19,276
And the next time
we may not be so lucky.
1148
01:18:19,444 --> 01:18:23,614
They kill by the millions.
They kill in numbers
1149
01:18:23,782 --> 01:18:25,616
that the human imagination
1150
01:18:25,784 --> 01:18:28,411
simply cannot comprehend.
1151
01:18:28,578 --> 01:18:31,080
I used to think,
"Well, we possess nuclear weapons
1152
01:18:31,248 --> 01:18:33,165
in order to prevent their use. "
1153
01:18:33,333 --> 01:18:35,167
We now know we live in a world in which
1154
01:18:35,335 --> 01:18:37,545
if we possess them,
1155
01:18:37,713 --> 01:18:40,506
if anyone possesses them,
they will be used.
1156
01:18:40,674 --> 01:18:44,510
I don't see any good that a nuclear weapon
could do or bring to the world.
1157
01:18:44,678 --> 01:18:46,554
In my opinion, you can forget them.
1158
01:18:46,722 --> 01:18:49,056
I think they should be destroyed.
1159
01:18:49,224 --> 01:18:50,975
I think we'd be better off without 'em.
1160
01:18:51,143 --> 01:18:52,977
There's 183 countries in the world
1161
01:18:53,145 --> 01:18:54,979
that do not have nuclear weapons.
1162
01:18:55,147 --> 01:18:57,815
Many of these countries
could have nuclear weapons.
1163
01:18:57,983 --> 01:18:59,984
They've chosen not to.
1164
01:19:01,361 --> 01:19:03,195
We have decided
1165
01:19:03,363 --> 01:19:05,990
to take a 180ᵒ turn in South Africa.
1166
01:19:06,158 --> 01:19:09,118
When I became president,
I was then informed
1167
01:19:09,286 --> 01:19:11,954
that we had completed six devices
1168
01:19:12,122 --> 01:19:14,999
more or less comparable to the bombs
1169
01:19:15,167 --> 01:19:17,710
which were actually used at Hiroshima.
1170
01:19:17,878 --> 01:19:20,045
I indicated
1171
01:19:20,213 --> 01:19:22,923
that I would like us
to stop this program
1172
01:19:23,091 --> 01:19:26,218
and to become part
of the mainstream in the world again.
1173
01:19:26,386 --> 01:19:28,471
The only way to eliminate
1174
01:19:28,638 --> 01:19:30,681
the threat of nuclear terrorism
1175
01:19:30,849 --> 01:19:33,309
is to eliminate all nuclear weapons
in all countries.
1176
01:19:33,477 --> 01:19:36,312
We've got to ensure that never once
1177
01:19:36,480 --> 01:19:38,314
do terrorists succeed
1178
01:19:38,482 --> 01:19:40,775
in detonating a nuclear weapon.
1179
01:19:40,942 --> 01:19:43,694
When you think about nuclear security,
1180
01:19:43,862 --> 01:19:45,780
it's all about the material.
1181
01:19:45,947 --> 01:19:47,782
The simple physical fact is
1182
01:19:47,949 --> 01:19:50,409
that if you don't have
fissile material-
1183
01:19:50,577 --> 01:19:53,287
either highly-enriched uranium
or plutonium, for example-
1184
01:19:53,455 --> 01:19:55,664
then you cannot have
a nuclear weapon.
1185
01:19:55,832 --> 01:19:59,502
The focus is all about the material.
1186
01:19:59,669 --> 01:20:01,629
Stop making new material.
1187
01:20:01,797 --> 01:20:04,965
Secure the material where
you know it is around the world.
1188
01:20:05,133 --> 01:20:08,177
And make sure that you detect
illicit transfer of the material.
1189
01:20:08,345 --> 01:20:11,263
And then start getting rid
of the material you have.
1190
01:20:11,431 --> 01:20:15,476
Today in the world
we have about 1700 tons of H.E.U.
1191
01:20:15,644 --> 01:20:17,895
So that's enough material
for, you know,
1192
01:20:18,063 --> 01:20:20,648
on the order of
50,000 to 100,000 weapons
1193
01:20:20,816 --> 01:20:22,650
and to really create
1194
01:20:22,818 --> 01:20:25,319
a truly international system
for these facilities.
1195
01:20:25,487 --> 01:20:27,321
International fuel banks
1196
01:20:27,489 --> 01:20:29,448
or international reprocessing centers-
1197
01:20:29,616 --> 01:20:31,408
that'd be a much safer world.
1198
01:20:31,576 --> 01:20:34,328
We haven't lost an ounce
of gold from Fort Knox.
1199
01:20:34,496 --> 01:20:36,455
We shouldn't lose
an ounce of plutonium
1200
01:20:36,623 --> 01:20:38,958
or highly-enriched uranium.
1201
01:20:39,125 --> 01:20:41,752
During the Cold War I believed
1202
01:20:41,920 --> 01:20:45,339
in the value of nuclear weapons
to deter an attack.
1203
01:20:45,507 --> 01:20:48,008
20 years after the fall
of the Berlin Wall
1204
01:20:48,176 --> 01:20:50,010
there's no excuse any longer
1205
01:20:50,178 --> 01:20:52,930
for keeping nuclear weapons
on launch-ready alert.
1206
01:20:53,098 --> 01:20:55,224
We can remove
1207
01:20:55,392 --> 01:20:57,601
all of the warheads on our missiles,
1208
01:20:57,769 --> 01:21:00,354
share our safeguards technology
1209
01:21:00,522 --> 01:21:03,148
and establish a joint warning center
1210
01:21:03,316 --> 01:21:07,361
to ensure nuclear war
cannot happen by mistake.
1211
01:21:07,529 --> 01:21:11,532
When I came
into government in the early 1980s,
1212
01:21:11,700 --> 01:21:14,285
the idea that within about 10 years
1213
01:21:14,452 --> 01:21:16,120
both sides would have agreed
1214
01:21:16,288 --> 01:21:19,081
to a 50% reduction
in their nuclear weapons
1215
01:21:19,249 --> 01:21:22,501
would have sounded absurd.
But we achieved it.
1216
01:21:22,669 --> 01:21:24,503
That means a reduction
1217
01:21:24,671 --> 01:21:28,883
of more than 5,000
nuclear warheads apiece.
1218
01:21:29,050 --> 01:21:32,219
We have gone almost 20 years now
1219
01:21:32,387 --> 01:21:36,348
without any really demonstrative steps
1220
01:21:36,516 --> 01:21:38,225
to nuclear reductions.
1221
01:21:38,393 --> 01:21:41,729
This has to be a step-by-step process.
1222
01:21:43,648 --> 01:21:45,941
That's how we did it
with chemical weapons.
1223
01:21:46,109 --> 01:21:48,319
These weapons are now taboo.
1224
01:21:50,447 --> 01:21:53,449
The Soviet Union
imploded when I was secretary of state.
1225
01:21:53,617 --> 01:21:56,577
And we actually got
an enforceable treaty
1226
01:21:56,745 --> 01:21:59,663
where we got Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine
1227
01:21:59,831 --> 01:22:01,999
to give up their nuclear weapons.
1228
01:22:02,167 --> 01:22:04,460
All countries in the world have to sign
1229
01:22:04,628 --> 01:22:06,921
a legally binding,
1230
01:22:07,088 --> 01:22:09,089
intrusively verifiable agreement
1231
01:22:09,257 --> 01:22:11,091
to rid the world of nuclear weapons.
1232
01:22:11,259 --> 01:22:13,928
The choice we face is
1233
01:22:14,095 --> 01:22:15,763
eliminating nuclear weapons
1234
01:22:15,931 --> 01:22:19,391
or living in a world
with 25 or 30 nuclear powers.
1235
01:22:19,559 --> 01:22:21,644
We can do this.
1236
01:22:21,811 --> 01:22:23,562
There has to be
1237
01:22:23,730 --> 01:22:26,231
a carefully orchestrated
process of reductions.
1238
01:22:26,399 --> 01:22:28,233
The United States and Russia,
1239
01:22:28,401 --> 01:22:30,235
with 96% of the world's
nuclear weapons,
1240
01:22:30,403 --> 01:22:32,237
have to lead the way.
1241
01:22:32,405 --> 01:22:34,281
We're starting in a world
1242
01:22:34,449 --> 01:22:36,825
where there are 23,000
nuclear weapons.
1243
01:22:36,993 --> 01:22:38,827
The very first step is
1244
01:22:38,995 --> 01:22:40,955
to cut those arsenals dramatically
1245
01:22:41,122 --> 01:22:42,998
in the United States and Russia.
1246
01:22:43,166 --> 01:22:46,710
Once you get down to
the low hundreds in the world,
1247
01:22:46,878 --> 01:22:49,713
then you will have built up
the confidence and the mechanisms
1248
01:22:49,881 --> 01:22:52,883
to ensure that you can
verify this process
1249
01:22:53,051 --> 01:22:54,802
so that we can get rid
of the last one.
1250
01:22:54,970 --> 01:22:57,262
None.
- Should be zero.
1251
01:22:57,430 --> 01:22:59,890
I say zero.
1252
01:23:03,979 --> 01:23:06,355
Never have it.
- We'd rather not have them, I think.
1253
01:23:11,444 --> 01:23:12,444
None.
- None.
1254
01:23:12,612 --> 01:23:14,488
Zero.
- Zero.
1255
01:23:14,656 --> 01:23:16,824
No nuclear weapons. Zero.
1256
01:23:16,992 --> 01:23:18,826
Zero.
- Zero.
1257
01:23:18,994 --> 01:23:20,285
No country should have them.
1258
01:23:20,453 --> 01:23:22,204
The optimum number is none.
1259
01:23:22,372 --> 01:23:23,706
Ideal will be zero.
1260
01:23:23,873 --> 01:23:25,541
Zero nuclear weapons.
1261
01:23:25,709 --> 01:23:27,710
Nol. Nol.
1262
01:23:43,685 --> 01:23:45,394
We've taken important steps foward
1263
01:23:45,562 --> 01:23:47,146
to increase nuclear security
1264
01:23:47,313 --> 01:23:49,565
and to stop the spread
of nuclear weapons.
1265
01:23:49,733 --> 01:23:51,567
This starts with the reduction
1266
01:23:51,735 --> 01:23:53,694
of our own nuclear arsenals.
1267
01:23:53,862 --> 01:23:56,196
This legally binding treaty
1268
01:23:56,364 --> 01:23:58,490
will be completed this year.
1269
01:23:58,658 --> 01:24:02,369
The arms control agreements we negotiated
1270
01:24:02,537 --> 01:24:04,913
between the United States
and the Soviet Union-
1271
01:24:05,081 --> 01:24:07,499
you'd think these were
independent initiatives
1272
01:24:07,667 --> 01:24:09,668
taken by governments.
1273
01:24:09,836 --> 01:24:12,254
But the fact is, public opinion
1274
01:24:12,422 --> 01:24:14,381
had a big role to play
in the process.
1275
01:24:15,925 --> 01:24:17,634
President Kennedy,
1276
01:24:17,802 --> 01:24:19,678
after he passed
the Limited Test Ban Treaty,
1277
01:24:19,846 --> 01:24:22,139
and whenever he mentioned it
on the stump afterwards,
1278
01:24:22,307 --> 01:24:24,641
he got thunderous applause.
1279
01:24:24,809 --> 01:24:27,269
And he quipped,
"If I had known it was so popular,
1280
01:24:27,437 --> 01:24:29,605
I would have done it
a long time ago. "
1281
01:24:29,773 --> 01:24:32,107
Elimination of nuclear weapons
1282
01:24:32,275 --> 01:24:34,568
has not yet been agreed to
1283
01:24:34,736 --> 01:24:36,862
by the political leaders
of the world.
1284
01:24:37,030 --> 01:24:40,532
It's a revolutionary idea,
but they can be eliminated.
1285
01:24:45,580 --> 01:24:47,956
We have to change our way of thinking.
1286
01:24:48,124 --> 01:24:50,709
And if we can't change
our way of thinking,
1287
01:24:50,877 --> 01:24:54,755
we won't survive.
It's that simple.
1288
01:24:54,923 --> 01:24:57,174
I've changed my thinking,
1289
01:24:57,342 --> 01:24:59,676
and millions and millions
of other people are changing their thinking.
1290
01:24:59,844 --> 01:25:02,805
And frankly, if you've never
changed your mind about something,
1291
01:25:02,972 --> 01:25:06,266
I say, you know, pinch yourself.
You may be dead.