Részletes keresés

Tarpataki Béla Creative Commons License 2002.08.10 0 0 1
Ne berekegj itt, írj magyarul. Vagy nem tudod lefordítani?
Előzmény: RogerWilco (-)
hurkazsírosnápolyi Creative Commons License 2002.08.10 0 0 0
0rban l0ser
Előzmény: RogerWilco (-)
RogerWilco Creative Commons License 2002.04.12 0 0 topiknyitó
Az elvakult otthoni csapkodás mellett érdekes lehet, hogyan látják a választásokat tölünk nyugatra (és keletre). Sokat lehet belöle okulni, feltéve, ha az ember el is olvassa és nem a hazai skatulyákba próbálja beszorítani öket.

Kedvenc The Economist-om cikke (az angolul nem értöktöl elnézést kérek, a fordítás meghaladja az indexre szánható idömet):

Orban loses—with his own help

Behind in the first-round ballot, the ruling party looks set to lose

THEY sounded desperate, and maybe were, but they were right. In the days before the first round of Hungary's parliamentary elections on April 7th, the ex-communist Socialist Party insisted that the opinion polls were wrong. The polls showed Fidesz, the conservative party of the prime minister, Viktor Orban, at least four points—some said 11—in the lead. Tosh, said the Socialists: the nastiness of the campaign was simply preventing their supporters from declaring themselves.

Unconcerned, Mr Orban urged his supporters to turn out: this first round could win it for him, he said. It allocates seats in those of the 176 individual constituencies where a candidate wins over 50%. It also decides some of the 210 regional and party-list seats. It duly did—and as voting day closed, the Socialists, in a record turnout of 70%, were ahead. They took 42% of the party-list votes, against 41% for Fidesz, 25 constituency seats against 20, and 69 regional-list seats against Fidesz's 67.

Fidesz's position is worse than it looks. In 1998, it was behind in the first round. But Mr Orban could turn for help to a number of allies, including the agrarian Smallholders' Party and the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum. The three parties withdrew various candidates in the second round to make way for each other, securing a centre-right majority. But since then Mr Orban has been busy uniting the right, and this time there are few Smallholders and no Democratic Forum to turn to. The Smallholders collapsed last year amid corruption scandals, and this time took less than 1% of the vote. The Democratic Forum had been absorbed into a joint election list with Fidesz. And Mr Orban's only other hope, the nationalist Hungarian Justice and Life Party, narrowly fell short of the 5% needed to get any seats at all.

The Socialists and their would-be prime minister, Peter Medgyessy, are better placed than it looks. They lead in 75 of the 131 seats to be decided in the second round, on April 21st. And they are on good terms with the liberal Free Democrats, who took third place in 103 constituencies. The two parties on Wednesday agreed not to fight each other on April 21st: the liberals will withdraw 71 candidates, the Socialists seven. The two are likely to form a coalition after the election, as in 1994.

The game is not yet up for Mr Orban. Characteristically, he came out fighting on Tuesday evening. Pointing to a sharp rise in the Budapest stock exchange following his party's setback, he said it showed Hungary would be dominated by foreign capital if the Socialists won. The 1994-98 Socialist-led government was indeed more free-market-minded than his has been.

But it will be an uphill struggle for him, thanks partly to errors of his own. For much of his time in office, Mr Orban has fought the liberal mayor of Budapest and appeared to have a grudge against the city. Its voters, nearly a fifth of the electorate, turned out to vote in even higher numbers than elsewhere. And only 32% voted his way, against 42% for the Socialists.

Ha kedveled azért, ha nem azért nyomj egy lájkot a Fórumért!