Láthatjuk, hogy az USGS-nek 3 becslése van: P95, P50 és P5. Ezek jelentése:
- P95 - azokat a mezőket számítjuk be, amelyekben 95%-nál nagyobb eséllyel találunk olajat
- P50 - azokat a mezőket számítjuk be, amelyekben 50%-nál nagyobb eséllyel találunk olajat
- P5 - azokat a mezőket számítjuk be, amelyekben 5%-nál nagyobb eséllyel találunk olajat
a P5-öt feltüntetni eléggé nonszensz. Van 100 mezőnk, ebből kb. 5-ben van olaj, a többi üres, de tételezzük fel, hogy mi olyan nagyon szerencsések vagyunk, hogy mind a 100-ban találunk olajat, és gyorsan fel is rajzolunk erre az eshetőségre egy grafikont.
Ez csak játék a számokkal.
Annak a valószínűsége, hogy ennyire szerencsések leszünk felér azzal, hogy 20 egymást követő héten folyamatosan eltaláljuk az 5-ös lottó nyerőszámait.
erre a valószínűségre kár a tintát pazarolni.
a P50 egy fokkal jobb, itt a 100 mező közül kb 50-ben találunk olajat, de mi feltételezzük, hogy mind a 100-ban lesz olaj, és rajzolunk.
a P95 áll a legközelebb a valósághoz, a többivel kár időt tölteni.
végeredmény: kb 2250 Gb olaj van összesen, és ebből kb 1000 Gb-t már kitermeltünk. Vajon hogyan alakul a maradék olaj kitermelése?
2. USGS Trükk
Hányjunk fittyet a fizika, geológia, és közgazdaság törvényeire és rajzoljunk fel tetszőleges formájú zöld, piros és kék színű grafikonokat, úgy, hogy lehetőleg a csúcs minél távolabb legyen. A végeredmény:
a piros a P50-et jelöli, a zöld a P5-öt. Ezeket a vonalakat nyugodtan figyelmen kívül hagyhatjuk, és ne zavarjon minket azon apróság, hogy a P50-et "mean" jelzővel illetnek, a P95-öt pedig "low" jelzővel.
Figyeljük tehát a kék vonalat, és hasonlítsuk össze az ASPO grafikonjával:
Látható, hogy igazándiból nincs is olyan nagy különbség a két grafikon között. ASPO-éknál évi kb 3%-os csökkenés van , míg az USGS évi 10%-os csökkenést razjolt fel, de csak azért, hogy kitolhassa pár évvel a csúcsot.
Matematikailag az USGS nem hazudott, ha nagyon akarod nekik is lehet hinni, de érzésem szerint az ASPO grafikonja sokkal jobban megközelíti a valóságot.
"- a háború az nem növeli, hanem éppenséggel csökkenti a kitermelést - amint ezt láthattuk Irak esetében (ford.megj.: de segít a vagyon igazságos újraelosztásában :))"
Hogy is van ez?
USA igazságosan több olajat kap, mert megdolgozott érte?
Megnéztem az idézett oldalt, és egy (szerintem) világvége jóslatot találtam, most egy kicsit depi lettem.
Vigasztalj meg, kérlek!!:-))))
Meg tudnátok mondani, hogy miért ilyen bizonytalan a termelés előrejelzése? (Peak Oil-ra olvastam már 2000-t, meg 2060-t is) Most azon kívül, hogy ezen a piacon mindenki valamilyen pozícióból nyilatkozik.
Egy igen jó cikk a Peak Oil-al kapcsolatos szcenáriókról Andrew McKillop tollából.
Egy két adat:
- a világ energiaigénye 90%-ban nem megújuló és környezetre ártalmas foszilis tüzelőanyagra alapszik.
- az energia-kereskedelem 65%-át képezi a kőolaj és a földgáz
- a mostani "ár-krízis" fokozódhat a 2005..2008-as időszakban, hogy aztán elérkezzünk a fizikai kiapadás korába.
- most már a hivatalos "megmondók" is beismerik, hogy az olaj drága marad
- az olaj árát 2 dolog vihetné le: növekvő kitermelés, vagy csökkenő fogyasztás - de egyis sem túl valószínű
- az IEA 3%-os igénynövekedéssel számol - hacsak az olaj hordója meg nem közelíti a 100$-os szintet
- az 1979-1980-as válságban az Irak-Iráni háború miatt 4 hónapig 5..7%-os termelés-kiesés volt, és ennek következtében az olaj ára 80$ / hordó lett (mostani dollárban számolva). Ma az olajexport 46 Mb/nap, így az 5..7%-nak kb 2,5..2,75 Mb/nap felel meg.
- a Kyoto egyezmény csak 2008-ban lép életbe (már ha életbe lép) de 2020..2030-ig alig, vagy egyáltalán nem fogja vissza a foszilis tüzelőanyagok égetését.
- a háború az nem növeli, hanem éppenséggel csökkenti a kitermelést - amint ezt láthattuk Irak esetében (ford.megj.: de segít a vagyon igazságos újraelosztásában :))
- Usák, Eu és Japán finánc-főmuftik azt mondogatják, hogy a magas olajárak visszafogják a gazdaság fejlődését, de az utóbbi 4 évben világszerte növekedett az olaj ára, és a világgazdaság összessége is növekedett. a szerző úgy véli, hogy 75$-os olajárig további gazdasági növekedésre lehet számítani, ami tovább fogja növelni az olaj-igényeket.
- Usák politikusok szokták mondogatni, hogy az a cél, hogy mindenki oly boldog és kövér legyen mint az Usákok, de ha mondjuk az Irakok is annyi olajat akarnának fogyasztani per kopf mint az Usákok, akkor napi 1,75 Mb olajra lenne szükségük - ami több mint jelenlegi kitermelésük.
- következtetés: az olaj ára Peak Oil-kor simán átlépi a 75$-os küszöböt - mindenféle háború vagy szabotázs nélkül, és ez 2008-ig bekövetkezik.
Those with long memories will recall that the Third World debt crisis began after the 'oil shocks' of the 1970s. What used to happen at IMF meetings in those days was that governments would encourage the 'recycling' of the spare millions (even billions) that the newly rich oil-exporting countries had to invest, and bankers - eager to make a turn - would not ask too many questions about the viability of African economies to which they offered money.
It was the financial markets' rather belated discovery that Britain possessed North Sea oil that led to an embarrassing surge in the pound in 1977, within months of Denis Healey's having to turn back at the airport to face a major sterling crisis. (He never got to the 1976 IMF meeting. They sent a team to him.)
My sense of last weekend's meetings is that there is an atmosphere of suppressed panic about the oil price, and about the danger of a serious crisis. This is over and above the well-publicised concerns about potential storms in the foreign-exchange markets when the financial world finally becomes nervous about the mani festly unsustainable US budget and balance-of-payments deficits - a nervousness which may well surface shortly after the presidential election.
Az hivatkozott oldalon az EIA úgy véli, hogy az olaj "normál" ára 22$ / hordó, és a "drága" olaj az 28$ / hordó. Ehhez képest mostanában a "dupla drága" olaj korát éljük (és közben reménykedünk, hogy az EIA a többi számot jobban eltalálta :))
EIA csinálta, USGS adataira támaszkodva, ami a legjobb munkának számít ebben a témakörben.
"In April 2000 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released results of the most thorough and methodologically modern assessment of world crude oil and natural gas resources ever attempted. This 5-year study was undertaken "to provide impartial, scientifically based, societally relevant petroleum resource information essential to the economic and strategic security of the United States." It was conducted by 40 geoscientists (many with industry backgrounds) and was reviewed stage-by-stage by geoscientists employed by many petroleum industry firms including several of the multinational majors."
"In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired crude is unlikely to be "right around the corner" as so many other estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning. Given the long lead times required for significant mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, this result in no way justifies complacency about both supply-side and demand-side research and development."
Not necessarily. There already exists plenty of alternatives to the standard internal combustion engine. With gasoline less than $2.00 a gallon in most areas of the United States, electric cars are not very popular. If the price were significantly higher, say $4.00 or $6.00, I'd expect to see quite a few electric cars on the road. Hybrid cars, while not a strict alternative to the internal combustion engine, would reduce the demand for gasoline as these vehicles can get twice the mileage of many comparable cars. Advances in these technologies, making electric and hybrid cars cheaper to produce and more useful, may make fuel cell technology unnecessary. Keep in mind that as the price of gasoline rises, the car manufacturers will have an incentive to develop cars which run on less expensive alternative fuels in order to win the business of consumers fed up with high gas prices. An expensive government program in alternative fuels and fuel cells seems unnecessary.
WON'T THERE BE A COST TO THE ECONOMY? WON'T WE SEE A RETURN TO THE PROBLEMS OF THE 1970'S?
When a useful commodity, such as gasoline, becomes scarce, there is always a cost to the economy, just as there would be a benefit to the economy if we discovered a limitless form of energy. This is because the value of the economy is roughly measured by the value of the goods and services it produces. Remember that barring any unforeseen tragedy or deliberate measure to limit the supply of oil, the supply will not drop suddenly, meaning that the price will not rise suddenly.
The 1970's were much different because we saw a sudden and significant drop in the amount of oil on the world market due to a cartel of oil producing nations deliberately cutting back on production in order to raise the world price. This is quite a bit different than a slow natural decline in the supply of oil due to depletion. So unlike the 1970's, we should not expect to see large lines at the pump and large overnight price increases. This is assuming that the government does not try to "fix" the problem of a declining oil supply by rationing. Given what the 1970's taught us, this would be very unlikely.
In conclusion, if markets are allowed to function freely the supply of oil will never run out, in a physical sense, though it's quite likely that in the future gasoline will become a niche commodity. Changes in consumer patterns and the emergence of new technology driven by increases in the price of oil will prevent the oil supply from ever physically running out. While predicting doomsday scenarios may be a good way to get people to know your name, they are a very poor predictor of what is likely to happen in the future.
Matt Savinar jóvoltából (lifeafteroilcrash.net) az Usákiai választásokig (november 2-ig) ingyen letölthető a könyve - The Oil Age is Over - elektronikus formában.
Nigériának elengedik 32 milliárd dolláros tartozását, ha kilép az OPEC-ből, és 2010-ig 4 millió hordó/nap-ra növeli kitermelését a mostani 2,1 millió hordó/nap-ról.
"hogyan lehet, hogy 50 dolláros olajár mellett szárnyal, de legalábbis jól érzi magát a világgazdaság?!"
akárhogyan is nézzük, szárnyalásról szó sincs - de még csak azt sem lehet állítani, hogy különösen jól érezné magát.
arra ami van, arra nagyon egyszerű a magyarázat. A 20. században az emberiség helyettesítette Istent a GDP-vel, aminek az lett a következménye, hogy az emberek már nem Istennek tetszően kellett éljenek, hanem úgy, hogy a GDP növekedjen pár százalékkal. (a kommunizmusban távoli utópiával helyettesítették az Istent, de aztán rájöttek, hogy jobb ha ők is a közelebbi és elérhetőbb GDP-t választják)
A mai Miatyánk így hangzana: "mindennapi százalékunkat add meg nekünk ma..."
(lásd bővebben Jeremy Rifkin: Entropy című könyvében
Ha a GDP növekedése 3..5% körül van, akkor minden rendben, ha 5..10% között van, akkor szárnyal a gazdaság. Ha a GDP növekedése 1..2% körül van, akkor ejnye-bejnye, de ha a GDP csökkenést jelez, akkor... nos arra jobb nem is gondolni.
Manapság az Eurozóna az ejnye-bejnye kategóriában van, Usákia pedig állítólag a minden-rendben kategóriába került, de ezt is meg lehet magyarázni: az olajat dollárban mérik, és minél drágább az olaj, Usákia annál több dollárt kell nyomtasson, amit aztán szétoszt azok között, akik nem szabad dollárt nyomtassanak - persze némi ellenszolgátatásért cserébe.
Magyarország immár régóta váltogatja a "minden rendben" és a "szárnyaló gazdaság" kategóriákat. Remélem te is érzed a szétáradó örömöt :))
voltak néha rázós pillanatok, amikor a Microsoft elvitte az X-box gyártását magyarországról, és az illetékes elvtársak megijedtek, hogy akkor most oda a teljes GDP növekedés, de aztán átírtak pár számot, és minden maradt a régiben. Olyan is volt, hogy egyszer kicsi volt a GDP, de akkor a Nokia rájött, hogy az egyik számot rossz rubrikába írta, és átírták másik helyre, és minden helyrejött :))
Sajnos engem nem győznek meg ezek a GDP számok, és továbbra is vallom, hogy a GDP nem boldogít.
Anno, az átkosban, amikor sehol sem volt az ország GDP-je, akkor a Magyar volt a keleti tömb "vidám barakkja", most meg - amikor ilyen szép számokat tudunk kimutatni, hogy még Usákia is megirigyelné - most pedig kiderült, hogy a Magyarok a Nyugati tömb legpesszimistább nemzete... akkor hogyan is van ez?
"még a 83$-os rekord se lenne túl vészes, mert 1$ GDP-hez fele, harmada annyi olaj kell mint a 70-es években"
Münchausen bárót egyszer üldözőbe vett egy nagy medve, és egy hatalmas fa körül futottak körbe-körbe. A medve már majdnem utolérte, de Münchausen báró nem aggódott túlságosan, mert volt két kör előnye :))
Ha marad a trend, akkor január-február környékén már várható lesz a 60$ olajár. De igazából még a 83$-os rekord se lenne túl vészes, mert 1$ GDP-hez fele, harmada annyi olaj kell mint a 70-es években.
Ez hatással lehet az USA-olajigényére? Egyáltalán érdekli még Kiotó az amikat?
Nagyon nem tudom elképzelni, hogyan működhet ez a Kyotoi egyezmény Usákia nélkül. Őket pedig csak annyiban érdekli ez az egész, hogy most már ők maradtak egyedül genyák, akiknek volna miből visszavenni, de erre nem hajlandók.
Kőolaj igényük pedig még akkor sem nagyon változna, ha aláírnák a Kyotoi egyezményt. Leginkább a szénerőművek visszaszorításával lehetne hozzájárulni a CO2 kibocsájtás csökkentéséhez, de az Usákok a "tiszta szén" technológiában vélik megtalálni a megoldást :))
Eddig nem nagyon érdekelte őket, amíg csak "a más tehene döglött meg". Majd ha Ivan és Jeanne összetalálkoznak és utódaik kisöprik Amerikát, talán gondolkodóba esnek.
De azt hiszem, már ma is késő!
PARIS The price of oil, which has been inexorably rising for the past two years, finally broke through the $50-a-barrel mark Tuesday, reaching a new milestone as some analysts warned that there was nothing to stop prices from rising even further. .Fueling these gains is an exceptional alignment of events: record high demand, historically low spare capacity, and a set of potentially destabilizing events in some of the world's top oil regions, countries ranging from Iraq and Russia to Venezuela and Nigeria, to name but some. ."The market is looking for a new equilibrium point, and no one knows where that will be," said Jamal Qureshi, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington-based oil consultancy. ."We still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see $60 a barrel." .Crude oil for November delivery jumped as high as $50.47 a barrel in early Tuesday morning trading, and although its price retreated somewhat, it remained close to $50, closing at $49.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 26 cents. .Oil prices, which are up nearly 55 percent this year, have doubled in two years. .What pushed prices up this week, for example, was the news about possible clashes between the army and rebels in Nigeria that could threaten that country's oil production, along with the consequences of the passage last week of Hurricane Ivan over the Gulf of Mexico - a region that provides one-quarter of U.S. domestic oil production. .At the same time, demand for oil is running at a pace not seen since 1978. The world is expected to consume nearly one billion more barrels of oil this year than it did last year, driven by strong and sustained demand from China and India as well as the United States. .Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer, responded again Tuesday with a pledge that it would raise production capacity to 11 million barrels a day. The kingdom is currently pumping 9.5 million barrels a day. .Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi Arabian oil minister, had mentioned the increase in capacity while meeting with fellow OPEC oil ministers in Vienna this month. ."The kingdom is ready and capable of making up for production shortfall occurring anywhere in the world," Naimi was quoted as saying by the official Saudi Press Agency. .This is the second time oil prices have hit record highs in recent weeks. On Aug. 20, crude oil futures touched $49.40 but within days fell back to around $43 a barrel. Eric Bolling, an independent oil trader on the Nymex, said this rise might be different. He referred to the current oil market as going through a "perfect storm." .After the passage of Hurricane Ivan over Florida, the cumulative loss of production from the Gulf of Mexico region had reached 11.8 million barrels, or about 1.9 percent of the yearly output there, according to the Minerals Management Service, an Interior Department agency. A third of the region's production is still not making it to markets. .Since most oil producers are pumping full-out to meet record-high demand, there is little spare capacity left in the system. High prices reflect the fact there is no substitute for any interruptions in production anywhere, analysts said. .OPEC's spare capacity - idle production that can be brought on when needed - has sunk from about 15 million barrels a day in the mid-1980's, to around one million to 1.5 million barrels today. ."The market is much tighter today than it's been since 1973," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Unlike 1973, 1979, or 1990, the market today is going through a demand shock, not a political shock. Also, the market is not thinking long-term. It's thinking day-to-day." .Last month, oil traders were concerned that the fighting in Iraq would spill over and hurt that country's oil exports. Earlier this year, it was the continuing tussle between the Russian government and Yukos, Russia's top oil producer, that kept oil markets on edge. ."What's unnerving the markets is that significant disruptions could come from a number of sources," said Steve Turner, an oil analyst at Commerzbank. "It's possible that prices could go substantially higher given the right set of circumstances." .Even OPEC cannot do much more to bring down prices. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for a third of the world's oil production, are already pumping about 30 million barrels a day, the group's highest output in 25 years. .And the renewed Saudi announcement to increase capacity may not have much of an impact either, analysts said, since most of the additional Saudi barrels are of a heavy type that is less favored by refiners around the world. .So far, high oil prices have not hurt global economic growth. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank said recently that oil prices had not slowed the economic recovery or contributed to inflation in either region. .Part of the reason is that modern economies are much less dependent on oil than they were in the 1970's. Also, adjusted for inflation, oil prices are still historically lower than their peak of March 1981, when crude reached nearly $80 a barrel in today's dollars. .Still it does not mean the world is immune to high oil prices. In France, Budget Minister Dominique Bussereau said Monday that French growth would slow by 1 percentage point next year if oil prices remained above $50 a barrel, according to Bloomberg News. The French government expects 2.5 percent growth in 2004 and 2005. .Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, also added his voice Monday to warnings that global growth would be at risk if oil prices remained at current levels. .Higher energy costs could hurt company earnings, depress stock markets, curtail consumer spending and eventually slow growth. Analysts usually expect a $10-a-barrel increase in oil prices to shave off 0.3 to 0.5 percentage point in gross domestic product growth. .Not everyone is convinced oil prices can stay high for too long. "Oil prices don't exist in a vacuum," said Yergin of CERA. "People generally underestimate the feedback effect on the economy. Markets adjust. The question is, do they do it smoothly or painfully?" .The New York Times PARIS The price of oil, which has been inexorably rising for the past two years, finally broke through the $50-a-barrel mark Tuesday, reaching a new milestone as some analysts warned that there was nothing to stop prices from rising even further. .Fueling these gains is an exceptional alignment of events: record high demand, historically low spare capacity, and a set of potentially destabilizing events in some of the world's top oil regions, countries ranging from Iraq and Russia to Venezuela and Nigeria, to name but some. ."The market is looking for a new equilibrium point, and no one knows where that will be," said Jamal Qureshi, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington-based oil consultancy. ."We still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see $60 a barrel." .Crude oil for November delivery jumped as high as $50.47 a barrel in early Tuesday morning trading, and although its price retreated somewhat, it remained close to $50, closing at $49.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 26 cents. .Oil prices, which are up nearly 55 percent this year, have doubled in two years. .What pushed prices up this week, for example, was the news about possible clashes between the army and rebels in Nigeria that could threaten that country's oil production, along with the consequences of the passage last week of Hurricane Ivan over the Gulf of Mexico - a region that provides one-quarter of U.S. domestic oil production. .At the same time, demand for oil is running at a pace not seen since 1978. The world is expected to consume nearly one billion more barrels of oil this year than it did last year, driven by strong and sustained demand from China and India as well as the United States. .Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer, responded again Tuesday with a pledge that it would raise production capacity to 11 million barrels a day. The kingdom is currently pumping 9.5 million barrels a day. .Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi Arabian oil minister, had mentioned the increase in capacity while meeting with fellow OPEC oil ministers in Vienna this month. ."The kingdom is ready and capable of making up for production shortfall occurring anywhere in the world," Naimi was quoted as saying by the official Saudi Press Agency. .This is the second time oil prices have hit record highs in recent weeks. On Aug. 20, crude oil futures touched $49.40 but within days fell back to around $43 a barrel. Eric Bolling, an independent oil trader on the Nymex, said this rise might be different. He referred to the current oil market as going through a "perfect storm." .After the passage of Hurricane Ivan over Florida, the cumulative loss of production from the Gulf of Mexico region had reached 11.8 million barrels, or about 1.9 percent of the yearly output there, according to the Minerals Management Service, an Interior Department agency. A third of the region's production is still not making it to markets. .Since most oil producers are pumping full-out to meet record-high demand, there is little spare capacity left in the system. High prices reflect the fact there is no substitute for any interruptions in production anywhere, analysts said. .OPEC's spare capacity - idle production that can be brought on when needed - has sunk from about 15 million barrels a day in the mid-1980's, to around one million to 1.5 million barrels today. ."The market is much tighter today than it's been since 1973," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Unlike 1973, 1979, or 1990, the market today is going through a demand shock, not a political shock. Also, the market is not thinking long-term. It's thinking day-to-day." .Last month, oil traders were concerned that the fighting in Iraq would spill over and hurt that country's oil exports. Earlier this year, it was the continuing tussle between the Russian government and Yukos, Russia's top oil producer, that kept oil markets on edge. ."What's unnerving the markets is that significant disruptions could come from a number of sources," said Steve Turner, an oil analyst at Commerzbank. "It's possible that prices could go substantially higher given the right set of circumstances." .Even OPEC cannot do much more to bring down prices. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for a third of the world's oil production, are already pumping about 30 million barrels a day, the group's highest output in 25 years. .And the renewed Saudi announcement to increase capacity may not have much of an impact either, analysts said, since most of the additional Saudi barrels are of a heavy type that is less favored by refiners around the world. .So far, high oil prices have not hurt global economic growth. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank said recently that oil prices had not slowed the economic recovery or contributed to inflation in either region. .Part of the reason is that modern economies are much less dependent on oil than they were in the 1970's. Also, adjusted for inflation, oil prices are still historically lower than their peak of March 1981, when crude reached nearly $80 a barrel in today's dollars. .Still it does not mean the world is immune to high oil prices. In France, Budget Minister Dominique Bussereau said Monday that French growth would slow by 1 percentage point next year if oil prices remained above $50 a barrel, according to Bloomberg News. The French government expects 2.5 percent growth in 2004 and 2005. .Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, also added his voice Monday to warnings that global growth would be at risk if oil prices remained at current levels. .Higher energy costs could hurt company earnings, depress stock markets, curtail consumer spending and eventually slow growth. Analysts usually expect a $10-a-barrel increase in oil prices to shave off 0.3 to 0.5 percentage point in gross domestic product growth. .Not everyone is convinced oil prices can stay high for too long. "Oil prices don't exist in a vacuum," said Yergin of CERA. "People generally underestimate the feedback effect on the economy. Markets adjust. The question is, do they do it smoothly or painfully?" .The New York Times PARIS The price of oil, which has been inexorably rising for the past two years, finally broke through the $50-a-barrel mark Tuesday, reaching a new milestone as some analysts warned that there was nothing to stop prices from rising even further. .Fueling these gains is an exceptional alignment of events: record high demand, historically low spare capacity, and a set of potentially destabilizing events in some of the world's top oil regions, countries ranging from Iraq and Russia to Venezuela and Nigeria, to name but some. ."The market is looking for a new equilibrium point, and no one knows where that will be," said Jamal Qureshi, an analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington-based oil consultancy. ."We still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see $60 a barrel." .Crude oil for November delivery jumped as high as $50.47 a barrel in early Tuesday morning trading, and although its price retreated somewhat, it remained close to $50, closing at $49.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 26 cents. .Oil prices, which are up nearly 55 percent this year, have doubled in two years. .What pushed prices up this week, for example, was the news about possible clashes between the army and rebels in Nigeria that could threaten that country's oil production, along with the consequences of the passage last week of Hurricane Ivan over the Gulf of Mexico - a region that provides one-quarter of U.S. domestic oil production. .At the same time, demand for oil is running at a pace not seen since 1978. The world is expected to consume nearly one billion more barrels of oil this year than it did last year, driven by strong and sustained demand from China and India as well as the United States.
