A study of natural gas consumption and reserves was recently made by
Dr. Colin Campbell and
Jean Laherrere. Their basic data are as follows:
North America
North America
Oil Equivalent*
WorldWorld
Oil Equivalent*
Oil Data
(comparison)
Consumption 1996
18 Tcf
3 Gboe
80 Tcf
14 Gboe
23 Gb
Produced
1,230 Tcf
224 Gboe
2,200 Tcf
400 Gboe
761 Gb
"Reserves"
152 Tcf
28 Gboe
4,800 Tcf
870 Gboe
800 Gb
Undiscovered
168 Tcf
30 Gboe
2,250 Tcf
410 Gboe
189 Gb
Remaining (Res + Undisc)
320 Tcf
58 Gboe
7,050 Tcf
1,280 Gboe
989 Gb
Ultimate
1,550 Tcf
282 Gboe
9,250 Tcf
1,680 Gboe
1,750 Gb
* 5.5 Mcf = 1 boe, or 5.5 Tcf = 1 Gboe
Tcf = Trillion cubic feet, Gboe = Billion barrels oil equivalent
Click here or on graph for the most recent graph from the US EIA.
Substituting Natural Gas for Oil
If energy consumption were to continue at its present pace and natural gas were to replace oil completely in order to maintain the current level of oil consumption (23 Gb), and if the current consumption of natural gas were to continue unabated (14 Gboe), then global natural gas supplies would be exhausted in 35 years:
1,280 Gboe/(23 Gb + 14 Gboe) = 35 years
If the combined consumption of oil and natural gas were to be reduced to the present level of oil consumption, then natural gas could continue for:
1,280 Gboe/(23 Gb) = 56 years
While reserves:production ratios are highly misleading, and these assumptions grossly oversimplify the likely real situation, this calculation gives one an appreciation for the limited time that humanity can postpone the inevitable by substituting natural gas for oil.
